Admixture + testing business two-wheel drive, new energy business is expected to open the growth space company is China's first overall listing of construction research institutions, admixture + testing business two-wheel drive, while planning to enter the photovoltaic industry, to create a new growth pole: 1) admixture business: benefiting from the profit elasticity brought by stable demand and falling raw material costs, the company's advantage is that the national layout is closer to downstream customers. Plan to continue to expand production capacity to increase market share Technical services business: "cross-regional, cross-domain" development to support steady growth, effectively smooth the fluctuation of the real estate cycle. 2) the company has signed a cooperation agreement with Yunnan Xinhua and Hemai shares, which is expected to gradually infiltrate into the photovoltaic field through years of scientific and technological research and development and achievement transformation of green building and building energy-saving solutions. According to our statistics, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic planning in 31 provinces can reach 514GW during the 14th five-year Plan period. The scale of distributed photovoltaic investment in 22-25 years is nearly 800 billion, and the industry is in a stage of rapid growth. The development of the company in the field of new energy is worth looking forward to.
Admixture market share continues to increase, testing business "cross-regional, cross-domain" steady development of superplasticizer industry concentration continues to increase, CR3 increased from 9.2% in 15 years to 18.7% in 21 years, of which the increase in 4.0pct reached 7.3%, stable in the top two of the industry, and the synthesis capacity reached 1.289 million tons in the first half of 22 years. The company issued 396 million convertible bonds in 22 years for a new round of production capacity construction, including 300000 tons of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer mother liquor, which is expected to support the continued increase in market share in the future. We believe that the industry demand is expected to improve month-on-month in the second half of the year, while benefiting from the lower price of raw material ethylene oxide and the greater profit flexibility of H2 superplasticizer; the company's testing business implements the "cross-regional and cross-domain" development strategy. while the traditional construction inspection business develops steadily, new areas such as electronics and electricity are also beneficial.
The testing business is less affected by real estate, and the gross profit margin is higher. With the steady expansion of endogenesis + epitaxy, there is still plenty of room for medium-and long-term growth. Testing business is expected to become another important engine to promote the company's performance growth.
Join hands with Yunnan Xinhua and Hemai shares to enter the photovoltaic market, and it is expected to open up a new growth space company to sign cooperation agreements with Yunnan Xinhua Water Conservancy and Hydropower Investment Company and Hangzhou Hemai shares. It is proposed to set up a joint venture company with the former to engage in photovoltaic project development, construction and operation, with a preliminary scale of 1GW, with a total industry volume of 4 billion yuan, and mainly cooperate with Hemai shares on the application and promotion of inverter and other advanced equipment. With Yunnan Xinhua's rich channels and resource advantages in photovoltaic EPC, as well as Hemai's technical advantages in inverters and other equipment, the company is expected to quickly open the photovoltaic new energy market. According to the forecast of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in 22-25 will reach 330-395GW. According to the distributed proportion of more than 50%, the corresponding distributed photovoltaic investment may be close to 800 billion yuan, of which photovoltaic modules, inverters and other equipment account for 55%. The company starts from photovoltaic EPC, and is expected to gradually extend to the upstream equipment in the future, which is expected to open up a new growth space.
Cover for the first time to give a "buy" rating
Regardless of the profit contribution of the new energy business for the time being, it is estimated that the net return profit for 22-24 is 3.36 pounds 4.07 / 487 million yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 23.5 percent, 21.3 percent and 19.6 percent. With reference to the comparable company valuation, the company is given a 22-year target of 18 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 8.46 yuan, covering the "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: capacity investment is lower than expected, demand decline, raw material prices rise sharply, the progress of new energy business expansion is lower than expected, the company's circulation market value is small, and so on.
