This report is read as follows:
The cement plate declines or has narrowed the bone material domain environmental protection business contribution increases in the future, the real estate board maintains the high quality development train of thought, the public offering REITs mode is helpful to develop the new mode of invigorating the industrial land.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company released a semi-annual report, 2022H1 revenue of 55.033 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.64%; return to the mother net profit of 1.836 billion yuan, with a reduction of 3.99% in line with expectations. Maintain forecast 2022-2024 company EPS forecast is 0.26 yuan 0.28 yuan 0.33 yuan, maintain target price 4.49 yuan, maintain "overweight" rating.
Cement sector sales are expected to narrow the decline for the whole year. It is estimated that the annual cement clinker sales of 2022H1 company is about 38.43 million tons with a drop of 20%, the ex-factory price of the company is estimated to increase by 70 yuan, and the gross profit per ton is about 84 yuan with an increase of 2 yuan. With the improvement of policy intensity on demand, it is expected to narrow the decline in sales for the whole year, and the company's hazardous waste disposal capacity ranks among the top five in the country after integration, while strengthening the control of mine resources, speeding up the construction of aggregate base, and improving the support of the aggregate industry chain, it is expected that the proportion of the sector will be increased with the faster development of environmental protection and aggregate business.
The bottom of the gross margin carried forward from the real estate sector is confirmed to maintain high-quality development. The company's real estate carry-over income of 14.9 billion yuan in 2022 is the same as a decrease of 16%, and the carry-over gross profit margin is 12.73% and minus 0.87pct, which is in line with the judgment that the carry-over gross profit margin remains stable at the bottom. The pressure on the sales end may be alleviated by the increase of H2 push and the warming of the environment, and under the pressure of the overall real estate environment, the company's shareholder background and financing cost advantages are obvious, and the judgment will maintain the steady development of focusing on the high-quality development of key cities.
Public offering of REITs promotes the process of invigorating industrial land. The company announced to Beijing Xisanqi "Jinyu Intelligence Factory" as the underlying asset offering REITs, the planned amount of about 1.7 billion yuan, to judge that both to the market and their own subscription, this model is expected to accelerate the company's industrial site activation process, the development of a new model that can be needed in the process of activation.
Risk tips: raw material cost risk, domestic monetary policy real estate policy risk.