Events:

On August 30, the 50K high-yield and high-performance large tow carbonization line of Jilin Chemical Fiber Group was successfully started at one time.

The carbon fiber capacity construction of the group empowers the incremental potential of the company.

The single-line production capacity of the 50K high-yield, high-performance and large tow carbonization line can reach 3300 tons, which is the last line of the Guoxing carbon fiber project with an annual output of 15000 tons. According to the company announcement on March 18, 2022, the Group promised to inject a controlling stake in Guoxing carbon fiber into listed companies within 3 years, which is expected to promote the rapid expansion of the company's carbon fiber production capacity.

Wind power, hydrogen energy and photovoltaic promote the rapid expansion of carbon fiber market

With the growth of wind power installation and the large-scale blade demand for large tow carbon fiber, in addition, the carbon fiber application market represented by carbon-carbon thermal field for photovoltaic and pressure vessels for hydrogen energy is also gradually opening.

From January to July of 2022, domestic apparent consumption increased by 20% year on year to 39300 tons, while exports increased by 190% year on year to 745 tons. As of early September, the price of carbon fiber T300 Compact 25K in Jilin area was 135000 / ton, down nearly 5% from the same period last year, and the price adjustment is expected to further open the demand of wind power enterprises. We estimate that global carbon fiber demand will reach 380000 tons by 2030.

In line with the industry trend, the production capacity of 40,000 tons of carbon fiber rights and interests has been promoted in an orderly manner. at present, Jilin Baodi, which is 49% owned by the company, has an annual output of 8000 tons of large tow carbon fiber, and Jilin Camick, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, produces 600 tons of small tow carbon fiber. The group's carbon filament assets are expected to be fully injected into listed companies within three years. At that time, listed companies can form 8 kilotons (49% equity) of Baodi + 12000 tons of Guoxing carbon fiber in production and 12000 tons under construction (promised to be injected within 3 years) + 12000 tons of fixed investment. A total of 40, 000 tons of large tow carbon fiber equity assets are expected to fully benefit the demand for civil large tow carbon fiber.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating

We estimate that the operating income of the company in 2022-24 is RMB 38max 48 / 4.9 billion, the year-on-year growth is 5%, the year-on-year growth is 27%, the net profit is 0.63max, 3.15 / 366 million, and the year-on-year growth is 149%, 401%, 16%, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.03,0.13,0.15 yuan, respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 180-36-31. In view of the large tow carbon fiber ushered in the opportunity period, the company has alpha properties, we maintain the company's 2022 target price of 6.36 yuan, corresponding to 2023 PE is 50 times, maintain the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint

Downstream drag on the demand for carbon fiber; the progress of projects under construction is not as expected; the uncertainty of Guoxing carbon fiber injection into listed companies