Main points of investment:
Zhonglai shares are photovoltaic backplane leader, TOPCon forerunner, distributed head enterprise. The company has made continuous breakthroughs in the main material battery and auxiliary material backplane link, and is committed to continuously reducing costs and increasing efficiency for component enterprises.
The company is the leader of photovoltaic backplane. In 2021, shipments reached nearly 170 million square meters, ranking first in the world. In the first half of 22, 120 million square meters were shipped, with a gross profit margin of 25.88 percent. It is planned to expand production by 50 million square meters in 2022, and the production capacity will reach 220 million square meters by the end of 22nd. In the future, it is planned to expand production of 50 million square meters every six months, and the production capacity is expected to reach 320 million square meters by the end of 23.
The cost advantage of the coating type in the backplane is obvious, the gross profit margin is high, and the proportion of shipments is constantly rising. it is estimated that 260 million square meters will be sold in 2022, with a profit of more than 1 yuan per square meter. At present, the company is gradually introducing a transparent backplane, and it is expected that the application on the double-sided component side will continue to improve in the future.
The pioneer of N-type TOPCon battery technology. The company is the first company in the industry to achieve GW-level TOPCON mass production, and has more technology accumulation in the field of TOPCON. The company's latest TOPCON2.0 technology is jointly developed with a shareholding equipment factory, with a mass production efficiency of 24.5%. At present, the company is developing TOPCON3.0 technology, and the future efficiency is expected to be further improved and the cost is further reduced. 22 years is the first year of mass production of N-type battery, the company seizes the opportunity of battery technology change and plans 16GWTOPCON battery project, of which Shanxi 4GW battery project has been put into production and is expected to be full production by the end of the third quarter. 4.5GW is expected to ship components for the whole year of 22.
The company is a distributed head enterprise, distributed business cooperation with SPIC, future shipments are guaranteed, the installed scale is expected to gradually increase. In 21 years, the company and SPIC reached a 5-year 7.2GW distributed EPC cooperation, 22 years is expected to install 2.5GW, its China power investment 1.5GW or above. Starting from 2021, the company's household distributed business has gradually changed from the credit mode to the EPC model, and the payback situation is even better. It is expected that the EPC model will make a profit of more than 20 cents per watt.
Maintain the company's "buy" rating. The company is the leader of the photovoltaic backplane, the production capacity of the photovoltaic backplane is constantly expanding, the gross profit margin is gradually rising, and the leading position is stable. In the context of the promotion of the whole county, the company's distributed business is steady. With the continuous release of new battery capacity, the company's battery module business gross profit margin from negative to positive, 22 1H single report profit per watt reached 4 points, battery module business ushered in a significant performance reversal, in the future upstream raw material prices decline in the background, the company's TOPCon battery profitability is expected to continue to improve. Our previous profit forecast for the company is: 22-24 return net profit of 6.86 Universe 10.3 / 1.3 billion yuan. Compared with the previous profit forecast, the external product sales assumption of this forecast has changed, mainly because the company is committed to reducing costs and increasing efficiency for component enterprises in the future, the main material link is mainly external sales products for batteries, and the profit of N-type batteries is expected to increase, the company is expected to make a net profit of 686 million / 1.035 billion / 1.364 billion for 22-24 years, and the current stock price is 686 million / 1.035 billion / 1.364 billion times of 26-18-13, respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: global photovoltaic demand is not up to expectations; photovoltaic industry competition intensifies; battery technology progress falls short of expectations; photovoltaic backplane competition intensifies.