Company announcement 2022 mid-report: 1) performance: first-half revenue 7.51 billion yuan, year-on-year + 22.8%; return to the mother net profit 159 million yuan, year-on-year-70.8%; deduction of non-return net profit 152 million yuan, year-on-year-72.7%.
Q2 revenue 4.03 billion, year-on-year + 32.8%; return net profit 134 million, year-on-year-33.4%; deduct non-return net profit 126 million, year-on-year-41.4%. 2) profit margin: the gross profit margin in the first half of the year is 8.6%, year-on-year-6.4pts; net return rate is 2.1%, year-on-year-6.8pts; non-return net interest rate is 2.0%, year-on-year-7.1pts. Q2 gross profit margin 10.9%, year-on-year-7.0pts; net return rate 3.3%, year-on-year-10.4pts; deduction of non-return net interest rate 3.1%, year-on-year-10.4pts. 3) Freight rate: the average VLCC-TCE in the second quarter is about-2978 US dollars per day, which is-205% compared with the same period last year; the average TCE of Suez and Avra tankers is 3.09 US dollars and 46400 US dollars per day, which is + 496 per cent and + 507 per cent respectively compared with the same period last year.
Q2 foreign trade oil products profit to make up for the loss of foreign trade crude oil, domestic trade profit has declined. 1) Transport volume: Q2 tanker transport volume of 43.412 million tons, year-on-year + 4.9%, month-on-month ratio-5.1%; transport turnover of 118.61 billion tons nautical miles, year-on-year-6.7%, month-on-month ratio-19.6%. 2) composition of gross profit: Q2 domestic trade, foreign trade, LNG transportation revenue is about 14.1,23.2 and 310 million, year-on-year + 0.9%, + 74.0%, + 2.1%; gross profit margin is 22.6%,-1.5%, 52.8%,-10.3%, + 4.0, + 1.5 PTS; gross profit is 3.2,-0.4, 170 million,-30.7% year-on-year, loss reduction 40 million, + 5.0%. 3) Foreign trade oil transportation: Q2 foreign trade crude oil revenue 1.58 billion, year-on-year + 73%; gross profit margin-8.6%, year-on-year-3.4pts. Revenue from ship leasing of oil products and oil products in foreign trade is 5.3 and 210 million, which is + 112% and + 24% compared with the same period last year; gross profit margin is 27.5%,-21.8% and + 37.1% and-20.8pts respectively. The income and gross profit of oil products from foreign trade increased significantly. Through the flexible adjustment between different regional markets and different ship types, the company can improve the overall fleet income. In the first half of the year, the proportion of cargo operation days in the Atlantic region was + 4.9pts compared with the same period last year, while three ships changed from internal trade to foreign trade and one ship was adjusted from product oil transport (white oil) to black oil transport. 4) domestic trade oil transportation: Q2 domestic trade crude oil revenue 720 million, year-on-year-7%; gross profit margin 27.9%, year-on-year-11pts; domestic trade oil product revenue 670 million, year-on-year + 12%; gross profit margin 18.3%, year-on-year-6.8pts. 5) LNG transport: Q2 foreign trade LNG transport revenue of 310 million, year-on-year + 2.1%; gross profit margin 52.8%, year-on-year + 1.5pts.
Looking forward to the second half of the year: 1) VLCC,7 has benefited from the increase in crude oil export shipments, the increase in long-distance pallets caused by crude oil spread arbitrage, and the improvement in fuel costs, and other factors, the VLCC-TCE index has risen significantly. We expect the freight rate to fluctuate with the marginal change on the demand side under the background that the incremental supply is clearly limited. Short-term attention to the US Bay shipping rhythm, peak season + energy shortage expected changes in transport and demand, as well as the progress of Iran's lifting of sanctions; the sustainability and elasticity of medium-and long-term recovery need to observe supply-side clearance indicators such as ship dismantling. 2) small and medium-sized crude oil tankers directly benefit from the reconstruction of trade routes brought about by Russian oil sanctions. Europe seeks import sources such as the Middle East and the United States Bay to replace the lengthened transport distance and the rising demand for tons of nautical miles, resulting in relatively prosperous freight rates. 3) finished oil tankers have previously benefited from: a) the recovery of travel between Europe and the United States has led to a significant increase in import demand for oil products; b) the rise in cracking prices has led to cross-regional arbitrage trade in oil products; c) factors such as the substitution of sources of imported oil products in Europe and the lengthening of transportation distance; the freight rates of LR and MR have increased significantly. Recently, freight rates have fallen due to the weakening of the marginal consumption of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the maintenance of refineries. Follow-up attention will be paid to the changes in demand for heating oil in winter and the actual increase in the transformation of trade routes for finished oil tankers after the landing of sanctions early next year.
Investment suggestions: 1) profit forecast, based on the expectation of long-term recovery of oil transportation next year and the year after next, we maintain the forecast of return net profit in 2022 at 1.44 billion, raising the forecast for 2023-24 to 36.5,4.94 billion (the original forecast is 25.4,4.16 billion), the corresponding three-year EPS is 0.30,0.77,1.04 yuan, and the corresponding pre-PE is 46,18,13 times. 2) with reference to the 15-16-year oil shipping business cycle, the company is valued twice as much as PB in 2024, corresponding to the target price of RMB16.0,15% more than the current price, and maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, ship dismantling was not as expected, and the demand for crude oil trade tons of nautical miles decreased.