Event: the company released its semi-annual report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 2.019 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.96% over the same period last year; net profit of 14 million yuan, a decrease of 76.63% over the same period last year; and deduction of 13 million yuan of non-net profit, an increase of 13.77% over the same period last year. Q2 realized operating income of 1.295 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.22% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 9 million yuan, a decrease of 62.41%.
Main points of investment
The delivery of trainer products is reduced, and the company's performance is under pressure. From a product point of view, the operating income of 2022H1 trainers, other aviation products and non-aviation products is 4.78,15.37 and 5 million yuan respectively. Among them, the operating income of trainers reached 1.214 billion yuan in the same period last year, down 60.6 percent from the same period last year; revenue from other aviation products reached 1.388 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 10.7 percent over the same period last year; and revenue from non-aviation products reached 89 million yuan in the same period last year, down 90.0 percent from the same period last year.
The pressure on 2022H1's performance is mainly due to the reduction in the number of trainer aircraft delivered in the current period. On the inventory side, the company's inventory amount in the first half of the period was 4.157 billion yuan at the end of the period, an increase of 38.42% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase of raw materials in the company's current period.
The management capacity has been continuously strengthened and the business indicators have been continuously optimized. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 2022H1 Company are 0.25%, 0.96%, 0.95%, 0.21%, 0.00% /-0.12% / + 0.05% /-0.16%, respectively. The company is committed to improving various management capabilities. For the advanced enterprises in the standard bank industry, the company has improved and revised a number of internal management systems, continuously optimized and improved AOS management system, accelerated the construction of customer service engineering support center, further improved the level of corporate governance, and further optimized production management capacity.
The moat is significant, looking forward to profitability repair. As a domestic scientific research and production base of trainers, the company is the only enterprise in China that has the ability of research, development and manufacturing of full-spectrum products of primary, intermediate and advanced trainers at the same time. For decades, the company has focused on the field of trainers, independently developed and manufactured trainers of many model series, such as Chu 6, K8, L15, and has accumulated rich experience in development and production. The company's trainer + defense product business is flexible and looks forward to profitability repair in the future.
Investment advice: based on the less performance pressure on the company's trainer delivery this year, we slightly downgrade the company's profit forecast:
The company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is forecast to be 72.77 / 86.71 / 9.848 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is 0.45 / 0.67 / 83 million yuan, an increase of-70.3% / 49.6% / 23.3% over the same period last year.
The corresponding EPS is 0.06 / 0.09 / 0.12 yuan respectively, downgrading the company to "overweight-A" rating.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic situation, intensified competition in the industry, the risk of delivery delay caused by international political factors, higher-than-expected prices of raw materials, and so on.