Event: the company disclosed its semi-annual report of 2022, with revenue of 5.61 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, + 33.51% of the same period last year, and net profit of 212 million yuan, + 36.37% of the same period last year.
Recycled aluminum business to overcome the interference of the epidemic to achieve sales growth, the company's annual performance is worth looking forward to. The main results are as follows: 1) the company overcomes the impact of the shutdown of the epidemic situation to realize the growth of sales of cast recycled aluminum. The production and operation of the company faced many interference factors in the first half of the year. on the one hand, affected by the epidemic, East China logistics was not smooth and Guangdong base stopped production for 12 days from April to May; on the other hand, the rapid fluctuation of aluminum price led to the delay of some customers' procurement. Under the above unfavorable conditions, the company achieved 291500 tons of cast recycled aluminum sales, + 5.6% compared with the same period last year, maintaining steady growth. 2) the increase in the price of raw aluminum leads to the increase in the price of the company. In the first half of the year, the average selling price of cast aluminum alloy ingots reached 17216 yuan / ton, + 14.11% compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by the rise in the price of primary aluminum (raw aluminum + 23.73% compared with the same period last year). 3) the volume and price are expected to improve month-on-month, and the annual performance is expected. With the commissioning of the first phase of the Anhui base project in the second half of the year, the company's production and sales volume will improve month-on-month; at the same time, after the aluminum price stabilizes, the waste aluminum price will gradually stabilize, the company will be weakened by the fluctuation of raw materials, and the gross profit margin is expected to pick up. In the second half of the year, production and sales volume and gross profit per ton may improve synchronously, and the annual performance is worth looking forward to.
With the continuous growth of the production capacity of the foundry department, the production capacity of the deformed aluminum alloy business has been expanded rapidly, and the scale advantage has been expanded again. 1) 400000 tons of recycled aluminum Q4 of foundry system in the first phase of Shunbo, Anhui Province is expected to be put into production of 100000 tons. The company's Anhui Shunbo Phase I 400000 ton foundry series recycled aluminum project is progressing smoothly, Q4 is expected to be put into production of 100000 tons, and is expected to be fully put into production in 2023, after the company is put into production, the scale of raw materials of foundry series will further increase; 2) the raw materials of deformation series will expand rapidly. After the acquisition of Chongqing Aobo aluminum in 2021, the company cut into the raw material business, and then quickly laid out the second phase of Anhui Shunbo project and Hubei Shunbo project. ①, Anhui Shunbo Phase II planning 500000 tons of deformation series raw materials project: Anhui Shunbo Phase II 500000 tons of deformation series raw materials are actively promoting land and environmental assessment work, the company expects some devices to be put into trial operation in 2023, and is expected to be put into production one after another in 2024-25; ②, Hubei Shunbo deformation system project is advancing rapidly: the company plans to build 150000 tons of deformation series aluminum bars in Hubei Shunbo, and strive to achieve partial mass production in Q4 in 2022. In the future, with the rapid expansion of production capacity, the scale effect of the company will be strengthened, and the overall profitability is expected to rise to a new level.
Profit Forecast and Investment suggestion: estimated net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 43,000,000 yuan.
Taking into account capacity expansion, product structure optimization, for the first time to cover the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is lower than expected, product prices fluctuate, and projects under construction are not as expected.