Tengyuan Cobalt (301219): Copper and cobalt prices stabilized under pressure in Q2 and did not change long-term improvement

中郵證券 · Aug 30, 2022 00:00 · Researches

事件：

公司公布2022 年半年度报告，2022H1 公司实现营收26.87 亿元，同比增长48.38%，归母净利润为5.47 亿元，同比增长9.57%。

点评：

减值拖累公司Q2 业绩，目前风险充分释放。季度上看公司22Q2实现营收11.04 亿元，同比增长17.46%，环比下降30.29%；归母净利润为0.91 亿元，同比下降55.49%，环比下降80.19%。公司业务有所下滑，主要原因在于铜钴价格下跌，2022H1 公司对可能发生的资产减值进行计提损失1.17 亿元。

钴下游需求恢复强劲，公司业务企稳向好。2022H1 腾远本部钴系列产品产量4495 金属吨，同比增长35.54%。新产品电积钴产线已建成投产并自2022 年4 月份开始销售，2022 年1-6 月份累计销量92.26吨。当前钴下游利好消息不断，目前钴库存正处于历史低位，下半年三元电池排产不断增加，叠加废料回收系数提升，支撑电钴、钴盐的价格。下半年钴价预计重新开启上涨趋势，叠加公司电解钴产量持续放量，公司业务企稳向好。

铜产能从3.24 万吨，扩产到6.3 万吨；钴产能从1.25 万吨，扩产至3 万吨。截止到2021 年底公司铜产能为32400 吨，钴产品的产能为12500 吨。（1）刚果腾远的扩产：铜：随着刚果腾远二期的不断建设，预计2022 年底刚果腾远的电积铜产能将达到4 万吨，整个三期项目建设完成后，电积铜产能将增至6 万吨。钴：预计2022 年底刚果腾远的钴产能将达到1 万吨。（2）腾远钴业的扩产：腾远国内本部二期募投项目13500 吨钴盐产能，预计将于2022 年9 月份建成投产，加上之前的6500 吨，形成总计2 万吨钴盐的产能。

布局一体化，打造原料-前驱体-回收产业链闭环。2022 年3 月公司募资21.9 亿元建设利用钴中间品、镍中间品及锂电池废料生产钴1万金属吨、镍1 万金属吨项目，产品有电积钴、碳酸锂、三元前驱体等。公司也在加大电池材料的回收以及前驱体的研发工作，前驱体材料中镍钴锂成本占比90%。参考华友、格林美等拥有一体化产业链的企业等的毛利率，腾远布局一体化盈利能力可期。

盈利预测

预计2022/2023/2024 年公司归母净利润为14.8/25.5/36.4 亿元，对应EPS 为6.54/11.26/16.04 元，对应PE 为14.18/8.24/5.78 倍，参考国内同行水平给予公司2023 年15 倍估值，对应目标价为169 元，维持 “推荐”评级。

风险提示

需求不及预期，铜钴价格大幅下跌等风险。

Events:

According to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 2022H1 achieved a revenue of 2.687 billion yuan, an increase of 48.38% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 547 million yuan, an increase of 9.57% over the same period last year.

Comments:

The impairment is a drag on the company's Q2 performance, and the current risk is fully released. In the quarter, the company's 22Q2 realized revenue of 1.104 billion yuan, up 17.46% from the same period last year, down 30.29% from the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 91 million yuan, down 55.49% from the same period last year and 80.19% from the previous year. The company's business declined, mainly due to the decline in copper and cobalt prices, and 2022H1 lost 117 million yuan on possible asset impairment.

Cobalt downstream demand returned to strong, the company's business stabilized and improved. The output of 2022H1 Tengyuan's cobalt series products was 4495 metal tons, an increase of 35.54% over the same period last year. The new product electrodeposition cobalt production line has been completed and put into production and has been sold since April 2022, with a total sales of 92.26 tons from January to June in 2022. At present, there is a lot of good news downstream of cobalt. at present, cobalt inventory is at a historical low, the production schedule of ternary batteries is increasing in the second half of the year, and the superimposed waste recovery coefficient is increasing, supporting the price of electric cobalt and cobalt salt. In the second half of the year, cobalt prices are expected to restart the upward trend, superimposed the company's electrolytic cobalt production continues to release, the company's business stabilizes and improves.

The production capacity of copper and cobalt increased from 32400 tons to 63000 tons and from 12500 tons to 30, 000 tons, respectively. By the end of 2021, the company has a production capacity of 32400 tons of copper and 12500 tons of cobalt products. (1) the expansion of Tengyuan in Congo: copper: with the continuous construction of the second phase of Tengyuan in Congo, it is estimated that the production capacity of Electrodeposited copper in Tengyuan in Congo will reach 40,000 tons by the end of 2022. After the completion of the third phase of the project, the production capacity of Electrodeposited copper will increase to 60,000 tons. Cobalt: cobalt production in Congo Tengyuan is expected to reach 10,000 tons by the end of 2022. (2) production expansion of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry: the production capacity of 13500 tons of cobalt salt in the second phase of Tengyuan's domestic investment project is expected to be completed and put into production in September 2022, plus the previous 6500 tons, forming a total production capacity of 20, 000 tons of cobalt salt.

Layout integration, to create raw materials-precursors-recycling industry chain closed loop. In March 2022, the company raised 2.19 billion yuan to build a project to produce 10,000 tons of cobalt and 10,000 tons of nickel from cobalt intermediates, nickel intermediates and lithium battery waste, including electrodeposition of cobalt, lithium carbonate, ternary precursors and so on. The company is also increasing the recycling of battery materials and the research and development of precursors, which account for 90% of the cost of nickel, cobalt and lithium. With reference to the gross profit margin of enterprises with integrated industrial chains, such as Huayou and Green Mei, Tengyuan's layout of integrated profitability is expected.

Profit forecast

It is estimated that the net profit of 2022Universe 2023Universe in 2024 will be 14.8255Company36.4 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 6.54Universe 11.26Universe 16.04, corresponding to PE 14.188.24Universe 5.78 times, the company will be valued 15 times in 2023 according to the level of its domestic counterparts, and the corresponding target price will be 169RMB, maintaining the "recommended" rating.

Risk hint

Risks such as lower-than-expected demand and a sharp fall in copper and cobalt prices.

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腾远钴业(301219)：铜钴价格企稳 Q2承压不改长期向好

Tengyuan Cobalt (301219): Copper and cobalt prices stabilized under pressure in Q2 and did not change long-term improvement

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