Event: 2022H1 Company realized operating income of 3.835 billion yuan (+ 20.26%) and net profit of 137 million yuan (- 10.55%). Among them, 2022Q2 realized operating income of 1.983 billion yuan (+ 18.52%) and net profit of 72 million yuan (+ 1.68%).
Comments:
The performance was steady under the disturbance of the epidemic, and the repair was accelerated in the second half of the year. In terms of products, the revenue of the two cans / Indian iron increased by 31% /-33% / to 34.8 / 350 million yuan respectively in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. Affected by the national epidemic control policy in the first half of the year, the company was affected in terms of delivery, and many factories in North China stopped production, the company actively took measures to improve overall operating efficiency, core customer sales made steady progress, production, sales and share remained ahead of the industry, and profits increased positively in the second quarter. Since June, with the gradual relief of the epidemic and the rapid recovery of terminal demand, the company's orders are more full. with the arrival of the peak season of beer and beverage consumption in the second half of the year, the new production line in Anhui will be put into production in the third quarter, and revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
The gross profit margin increased month-on-month, and the expense rate decreased compared with the same period last year. 22Q2's gross profit margin is 9.11% (month-on-month + 0.89 pct), mainly due to last year's price increase fully reflected this year and the fall in aluminum prices and other raw materials prices, Q2 company has launched a new round of quotations with some customers, in the context of continued improvement in bargaining power and operating efficiency, profits per can are expected to rise steadily. The expense rate of 2022H1 company is 3.80% (- 1.23 pct), of which the sales expense rate is 0.94% (+ 0.01 pct), the management expense rate is 2.19% (- 0.94pct), the R & D expense rate is 0.2% (- 0.59 pct), and the financial expense rate is 0.47% (+ 0.29 pct).
The leading share continues to expand, and the production capacity layout is optimized and the operation efficiency is improved. (1) at present, the CR4 of the two-piece can industry has reached 70%. As an industry leader and bound with high-quality customers, the company will continue to expand production in the future. With the commissioning of Malaysia, Anhui, Guizhou, Cambodia and other projects, it is expected that the sales volume of two-piece cans will reach about 160,20 billion cans from 2022 to 2023. The company's market share will be further increased and the production capacity layout will be further optimized. (2) recently, Wuhan Baosteel Packaging has successfully passed the first supplier qualification certification of Yili, a well-known milk powder brand, and the scale of Indian iron business is expected to be further expanded in the future. (3) in addition, the company has launched a stock option incentive plan at the end of 2021, which will help to mobilize the enthusiasm of core employees and promote the achievement of the company's business objectives.
Profit forecast: according to the profit forecast and target price raised in the China report, the net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 3.21 / 4.23 / 539 million yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 29.0 / 22.0 PE 17.3x respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material costs fluctuate, industry competition intensifies, and epidemic situation repeats.