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协鑫能科(002015):换电业务开启二次增长

GCL Energy Technology (002015): Power exchange business starts second growth

川財證券 ·  Aug 25, 2022 00:00  · Researches

The company leads the clean energy operation industry, and the clean energy operation business with rich reserves of power generation projects is the core business of the company after asset restructuring. The company insists on vigorously developing affordable wind power and increasing the proportion of renewable energy. In 2021, the installed capacity of clean energy based on natural gas and wind energy has exceeded 90%.

Compared with other forms of power generation, the unit of the company's power generation assets has a high utilization number of hours, and the electricity price is more clear, so as to ensure the company's stable profitability. The company constantly optimizes its assets and business structure and actively distributes renewable energy such as wind power. The company focuses on building parity grid wind power projects, wind power large base projects and wind storage integration projects. A number of wind power projects planned and acquired by the company in 2021 have been put into operation.

The company has rich experience in cogeneration business and obvious regional exclusive advantages. The company's cogeneration project is based on economically developed and resource-rich areas. The company focuses on the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other economically developed areas, and provides cogeneration services for dozens of national and provincial industrial parks, including Suzhou Industrial Park and Guangzhou Economic and technological Development Zone. The company's cogeneration project has obvious regional exclusive advantages. The company's rich experience in clean energy power generation and cogeneration enables it to intervene in the layout of the energy network in the planning stage of the development zone, thus creating regional exclusive advantages for future project operations.

The company distributes mobile energy business, opens up new profit growth points, and steadily advances the layout of power exchange, with the goal of building 6000 exchange power stations in 2025. By May 2022, the company has built 11 passenger vehicle exchange power stations, 5 commercial vehicle exchange power stations, and 41 completed and under construction passenger and commercial vehicle exchange power stations, all of which are connected to the integrated operation and maintenance platform. In 2022, the company aims to build 300 power stations to serve about 30,000 vehicles. In 2025, the company aims to build more than 6000 exchange power stations and serve more than 500000 to 600000 new energy vehicles. Through the implementation of the new energy vehicle power station exchange project, the company will expand the company's energy sector business, enhance the overall competitive advantage, and provide the company with a good return on investment and economic benefits.

For the first time, coverage will be rated as "overweight".

We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve operating income of 13.852 billion yuan, 17.104 billion yuan and 23.554 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.092 billion yuan, 1.411 billion yuan and 2.039 billion yuan. The total share capital is 1.623 billion shares, corresponding to RMB 0.67,0.87,1.26 for EPS.

The main points of valuation are as follows: on August 25, 2022, the stock price is 15.05 yuan, corresponding to a market capitalization of 24.431 billion yuan, and the PE from 2022 to 2024 is about 22, 16 and 11 times. In the future, while steadily developing clean energy and cogeneration business, the company will continue to transform from energy production to integrated energy services, focusing on green travel ecology and building a leading mobile energy service provider. Therefore, we give the "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: the rise in fuel prices is higher than expected, the number of replacement power stations is less than expected, and the station ratio can not meet the standard risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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