Performance summary: according to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 22H1 realized revenue of 710 million yuan, year-on-year-2.4%; net profit of 120 million yuan,-8.9%; and deduction of non-return net profit of 100 million yuan,-19.9%. Q2 achieved revenue of 300 million yuan in a single quarter,-16.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 35.755 million yuan,-43.1%, and deducted non-return net profit of 22.39 million yuan,-63.3% year-on-year.
Aerospace and differential growth is eye-catching. In terms of aerospace business, subsidiary Hao Yiqiang achieved revenue of 120 million yuan, + 67.6% year-on-year, and net profit of 60 million yuan, + 89.8% year-on-year. It is expected that with the gradual landing of the second phase of aviation sheet metal processing projects and the further expansion of aircraft refitting business, aerospace business is expected to continue to grow. In terms of differential business, the revenue of 22H1's new energy vehicle differential products increased by 123% compared with the same period last year, growing rapidly. At present, the company has new energy vehicle differential project orders from important customers such as Geely / NIO Inc. / ideal / Dongfeng / Great Wall. At the same time, the company has introduced the Danish DISA casting line, forming a casting and machining capacity of 50,000 tons of differential shell per year, and the differential business is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year.
The passenger car synchronizer develops steadily, and the business income of commercial vehicles is under pressure. In terms of passenger car synchronizer business, 22H1 in the passenger car market affected by the epidemic, the company's passenger car synchronizer income is basically flat, market share increased. In terms of commercial vehicle business, the company's commercial vehicle heavy truck business income is-49% year-on-year, which is better than that of the industry (China's heavy truck sales in the same period are-64% year on year). The company is the first echelon in the R & D and production of domestic heavy truck AMT related products, and has participated in the research and development of heavy truck AMT related projects such as Faust and heavy truck, and successfully obtained orders, some of which have been mass-produced. If the heavy truck market picks up in the future, the company's commercial vehicle business income will improve accordingly.
Profitability is under pressure and is expected to improve in the second half of the year. 22Q2 company gross profit margin 35.0%, year-on-year-5.3pp, month-on-month Q2 gross profit margin decline is mainly due to: 1) the sharp decline in commercial vehicle revenue led to a decline in capacity utilization, resulting in lower gross profit margin; 2) differential business volume initial gross profit margin is low. In terms of expense rate, the 22Q2 sales expense rate is from + 0.6pp to 2.3%, the management expense rate is from-0.8% to 7.4%, and the R & D expense rate is from + 4.7pp to 10.3% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the obvious increase in R & D expense rate is due to the company's increase in R & D investment in new products and technologies. Taken together, 22Q2 net interest rate is 12.5%, year-on-year-7.2pp, month-on-month-8.5pp.
At present, the price of copper / steel, the company's main raw material, has fallen by about 20% from the high in the first quarter of the second quarter, and the superimposed passenger car industry has recovered. We expect the company's profitability to improve in the second half of the year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Homing net profit is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 32.8% over the next three years, with PE in 22-24 times that of 19-13-11, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk that new business development is not as expected; epidemic risk; chip shortage risk; exchange risk