Main points of investment
Cosco Haineng reported a year-on-year decline in its performance in mid-2022. According to the mid-term financial data released by Cosco Haineng, the operating income of the company reached 7.513 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 22.85% over the same period last year; the net profit was 159 million yuan, down 70.78% from the same period last year; and the net profit after deducting non-return was 152 million yuan, down 72.68% from the same period last year.
The foreign trade tanker market continues to recover, and the company's foreign trade oil transportation plate has been improved. The VLCC transport market was plagued by overcapacity and high fuel prices in the first half of 2022, with the average daily revenue of the TD3C (Middle East to China) route only-$9334 per day in the first half of 2022, the lowest level in history. The original tanker small and medium-sized ship types benefited from the substantial increase in exports from the United States Bay and West Africa to European pallets, and the market performance was active.
Except for the VLCC ship type, the daily income level of the representative route of all tanker types has increased by more than 100% compared with the same period last year. The total foreign trade income of the company in the first half of the year was 3.945 billion yuan, an increase of 45% over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin was-10.9%, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year.
The operation of the domestic trade tanker transport plate is sound, and the level of gross profit margin has declined slightly. The company's domestic trade oil tanker market remained stable in the first half of 2022, with domestic trade oil transportation revenue of RMB 2.954 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6% over the same period last year, transportation gross profit of RMB 720 million yuan, a decrease of 173 million yuan over the same period last year, and gross profit margin of 24.2%, down 7.8% from the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: we raise the company's profit forecast, and expect the 2022-2024 net profit to be 13.71max 38.77max 5.93 billion (the original forecast is 12.42x20.81max 28.36), corresponding to the 2022-2024 EPS is 0.29max 0.81max 1.25 yuan, based on the company's closing price on August 31, 2022 (14.1 yuan), corresponding to 2022-2024 PE is 49-17-11 times, maintaining the company's "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hint. 1) the risk of transportation operation. 2) the competition in the industry is intensified. 3) fuel cost disturbs profit.