Summary of events: the company released its mid-2022 report: revenue in the first half of 2022 was 2.671 billion yuan, an increase of 13% over the same period last year; net profit from home was 341 million yuan, down 32.14% from the same period last year; and 418 million yuan was deducted from non-return net profit, down 8.7% from the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, 2022Q2, the company achieved revenue of 1.522 billion yuan, an increase of 6.16% over the same period last year, an increase of 32.47% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 307 million yuan, down 17% from the same period last year and an increase of 811% from the same period last year; and deducting 293 million yuan from the same period of last year, a decrease of 9% from the same period last year and an increase of 135% from the previous year.
Comments: actively adjust the product structure, Q2 gross profit margin only declined 0.46pct1. Quantity: actively adjust the product structure, 22H1 graphite electrode output of 84000 tons, carbon brick output of 13000 tons. In the first half of the year, the company achieved an output of 101000 tons of carbon products, including 84000 tons of graphite electrodes, 13000 tons of carbon bricks and 188000 tons of iron powder. Under the situation of sharp decline in electric furnace construction and strong raw materials in the first half of the year, the company actively adjusted the product structure, the output of carbon bricks increased (13000 tons in the first half, 19000 tons in 2021), and the production of graphite electrodes is expected to decline.
two。 Price: raw material prices are strong, 22H1 gross profit margin fell 1.47pct year-on-year to 31.22%. The price of raw materials was strong in the first half of the year, including + 56% for petroleum coke, + 42% for needle coke, and + 24% for graphite electrodes, the company's main products. Due to scrap recycling and other problems, the operating rate of the downstream electric furnace is only 56% (71% in the same period last year), and the demand for graphite electrodes is poor. The company actively adjusted the product structure and increased the output of carbon bricks. The gross profit margin of 22H1 was 31.22%, down 1.47pct from the same period last year. Q2 gross profit margin is 34%, only down 0.46pct from the same period last year.
Future core focus: capacity release + improved demand for graphite electrodes, the company's performance will steadily pick up 1. 5%. Scrap recovery tends to be normal, and the start-up of electric furnace is expected to pick up, leading to an improvement in the demand for graphite electrodes. The impact of the epidemic and other factors on scrap recycling gradually slows down, the start of electric furnace is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, and the company's graphite electrode shipments will gradually pick up. The CO2 emission per ton of EAF steelmaking is only about 0.5t, which is less than 1x4 of the emission from blast furnace steelmaking. The policy encourages the development of EAF steel and there is a broad demand for graphite electrodes.
two。 The ultra-high power graphite electrode project has been put into production one after another, and the leading position is more stable. With Hefei carbon 50,000 tons relocation project, Meishan Fangda 50,000 tons new project, Chengdu Rongguang 25000 tons relocation project, the leading position is more stable.
In terms of product structure, as the graphite electrode project is mainly a series of ultra-high power products, the proportion of the company's high-end graphite electrode products will be further enhanced in the future.
3. With the gradual increase of isostatic graphite, the contribution of performance is expected to rise steadily. Chengdu carbon material, a subsidiary, is a professional R & D and production enterprise with good quality, large specification and high output of isostatic pressed graphite products in China. At present, the company has a production capacity of 10,000 tons of isostatic pressed graphite, with a total planned production capacity of 30,000 tons. With the late production capacity gradually put into operation, the performance contribution is expected to rise steadily.
Investment suggestion: a number of projects under construction in the company gradually release production capacity, the demand for graphite electrodes is broad, and the company's performance release is expected. We estimate that the company's 2022-2024 return net profit will be 9.15 14.32 billion yuan, corresponding to the current price, PE in 2022-2024 will be multiple of 29-19-13, maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the development of electric furnace steelmaking is not as expected; the progress of the project is not as expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.