Main points of investment
In the first half of 2022, Qingdao Port achieved revenue of 99.46 yuan, + 18.61% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 2.311 billion yuan, + 5.97% compared with the same period last year. In terms of operating data, the company achieved cargo throughput of 315 million tons, + 9.7% year-on-year, of which container throughput reached 1301 TEU, + 11.6% year-on-year. The performance is basically in line with expectations.
The outstanding performance of the double rise in container volume and price led to a high increase in the performance of the plate, container throughput + 11.6% year-on-year: according to the Ministry of Communications, the company achieved 1301 TEU container throughput in the first half of 2022, an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year, of which Qingdao Port and Weihai Port completed 1247 and 540,000 TEU respectively. Quarter by quarter, Qingdao Port achieved container throughput of 5.9 million and 6.57 million TEU respectively in the first quarter and second quarter of 2022, an increase of 6.3% and 7.5% respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased quarter by quarter. We believe that it is mainly due to the company's continued increase in routes and expansion of goods sources in the first half of the year, and a solid position of opening up to the outside world as a "bridgehead".
The impact of container rate adjustment continues: on February 9, 2022, QQCT announced that foreign trade 40-foot and 20-foot heavy container handling charges will be increased by about 14% and 12% respectively, which is expected to continue to increase the company's container business revenue and profitability.
From the perspective of the entire container sector, the company's entire container handling and supporting services business sector, including QQCT, achieved a total net profit of 738 million yuan, an increase of 43% over the same period last year.
The performance of liquid bulk increased steadily, while that of dry bulk decreased.
In the first half of the year, the total cargo throughput of the company, including containers, increased by 9.7% compared with the same period last year. We judge that the throughput of liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo excluding containers maintained a steady increase, which led to a steady growth in the performance of liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo.
The liquid bulk cargo plate benefited from the release of production capacity from the new crude oil terminal in the zone, the liquid chemical terminal and the matching crude oil commercial reserve depot, and the growth rate of the business, but the profit of participating in Qingdao Shihua fell by 22% affected by the cost end. The final plate realized a net profit of 998 million yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year.
Dry bulk sector, affected by the rise in fuel prices and the escalation of epidemic prevention and control, the net profit of the plate fell by about 27% to 263 million yuan.
Regional integration continues to advance, and is optimistic about the absolute income value brought by the company's steady growth. on the one hand, Qingdao Port shares complete the holding of the development of Weihai Port, which is expected to promote the joint development of Qingdao Port and Weihai Port; on the other hand, with the transfer of the actual control of the company to the Shandong Port Group at the beginning of the year, Shandong port integration continues to advance, and is optimistic about the overall improvement of Shandong port fees.
In addition, the company insists on "increasing routes, expanding cabin capacity and expanding transit". We are optimistic about the development opportunities of the company's transit port in Northeast Asia, which is expected to bring about excess growth in the company's throughput. Volume and price have the conditions for continuous improvement, and we are optimistic about the absolute profit opportunities brought about by the steady growth of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the development of the company's business lines, we estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.516 billion yuan, 5.021 billion yuan and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE will be 7.6,6.8 and 6.2times, respectively.
Risk hint
Transit box business did not advance as expected; loading and unloading rates declined; and the throughput affected by the epidemic was not as expected.