SIPG Group (600018): 1H22 performance slightly exceeded expectations, port leaders showed resilience under the pandemic

中金公司 · Aug 30, 2022 00:00 · Researches

1H22 业绩略超我们的预期

公司公布1H22 业绩：上半年实现收入200.9 亿元，同比增长15.7%，环比增长18.7%；实现归母净利润108.1 亿元，对应每股盈利0.46 元，同比增长24.0%，环比增长81.3%，略超我们的预期，主要由于子公司的收入利润增长以及参股公司带来的投资收益增长；对应2Q22 公司收入为76.8 亿元，同比下降20.6%，环比1Q 下降38.1%，归母净利润为53.2 亿元，同比下降7.7%，环比1Q 下降3.2%。受疫情影响，1H22 公司港口货物吞吐量环同比分别下降15.7%/11.5%，集装箱吞吐量环同比分别下降6.4%/1.7%，我们认为上半年公司利润增长主要来自子公司瑞泰发展、瑞祥房地产发展、锦江航运的利润贡献以及参股公司的投资收益贡献。

发展趋势

疫情影响渐行渐远，港口主业彰显韧性。受上海疫情影响，公司母港生产量和运营效率下降，4 月份上海港货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量分别环比3 月份下降30.3%/24.8%，上海港锚泊时长和作业时长均值分别环比3 月份增加199.4%/149.1%。随疫情好转以及腹地企业复产复工推进，上海港吞吐量快速反弹，目前生产运营已恢复至疫情前水平，7 月份上海进出口金额同比增长16.7%，货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量分别同比增长2.0%、16.2%。我们认为，下半年随着国内需求稳定增长以及上海进出口贸易规模增加，公司港口主业业务量有望保持较快增长。

多元化布局优势显现，参控股公司有望为公司带来利润弹性。根据公司公告，1H22 公司子公司瑞泰发展、瑞祥房地产发展以及锦江航运合计为公司贡献收入及净利润79.9 亿元、21.3 亿元，同比去年增长34.5%、35.0%；上半年公司通过参股公司获得投资收益64.9 亿元，其中东方海外、上海银行以及邮储银行合计贡献投资收益59.6 亿元，同比去年增长41.2%。上半年公司新增投资瑞禾房地产发展公司，我们认为持续的多元化业务布局有望为公司带来较好的利润贡献。

盈利预测与估值

我们维持2022 年和2023 年盈利预测不变。当前股价对应2022/2023 年8.1 倍/7.9 倍市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和7.28 元目标价，对应10.9 倍2022 年市盈率和10.7 倍2023 年市盈率，较当前股价有35.1%上行空间。

风险

宏观经济下行，港口降费率，疫情超预期扩散，进出口贸易增速放缓。

1H22's performance slightly exceeded our expectations.

The company announced 1H22 results: revenue in the first half of the year reached 20.09 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7% over the same period last year, an increase of 18.7% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother was 10.81 billion yuan, corresponding to 0.46 yuan per share, an increase of 24.0% over the same period last year, and an increase of 81.3% over the previous year, slightly exceeding our expectations, mainly due to the increase in income and profit of subsidiaries and the investment income brought by the participating companies. The corresponding revenue of 2Q22 company was 7.68 billion yuan, down 20.6% from the same period last year, 38.1% from 1Q, and the net profit from home was 5.32 billion yuan, down 7.7% from the same period last year, and 3.2% from 1Q. Affected by the epidemic, the port cargo throughput ring of 1H22 decreased by 15.7% and 11.5% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the container throughput ring decreased by 6.4% and 1.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. We believe that the profit growth of the company in the first half of the year mainly comes from the profit contribution of subsidiary Ruitai Development, Ruixiang Real Estate Development, Jinjiang Shipping and the investment income contribution of the participating companies.

Trend of development

The impact of the epidemic is gradually drifting away, and the main business of the port shows resilience. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, the production volume and operational efficiency of the company's home port decreased. In April, the cargo throughput and container throughput of Shanghai Port decreased by 30.3% and 24.8% respectively compared with March. The average anchoring hours and operating hours of Shanghai Port increased by 199.4% and 149.1% respectively compared with March. With the improvement of the epidemic and the resumption of production and work in the hinterland, the throughput of Shanghai Port has rebounded rapidly. At present, production and operation have returned to the pre-epidemic level. In July, the amount of imports and exports in Shanghai increased by 16.7% compared with the same period last year. Cargo throughput and container throughput increased by 2.0% and 16.2% respectively. We believe that with the steady growth of domestic demand and the increase in the scale of import and export trade in Shanghai in the second half of the year, the company's main port business is expected to maintain rapid growth.

The diversified layout advantage appears, and the participating holding company is expected to bring profit flexibility to the company. According to the company announcement, 1H22 subsidiaries Ruitai Development, Ruixiang Real Estate Development and Jinjiang Shipping contributed 7.99 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan to the company's income and net profit, an increase of 34.5% and 35.0% over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company earned an investment income of 6.49 billion yuan through equity participation, of which OOCL, Bank of Shanghai and Postal Savings Bank of China contributed a total investment income of 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 41.2 percent over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company invested in Ruihe Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., and we believe that the continuous diversified business layout is expected to bring better profit contribution to the company.

Profit forecast and valuation

We keep our profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 unchanged. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 times 2023 / 7.9 times 2023. Maintain an outperform industry rating and a list price of 7.28 yuan, corresponding to 10.9 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio and 10.7 times 2023 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 35.1% upward space compared with the current stock price.

Risk

The macroeconomic downturn, port rates cut, the epidemic spread more than expected, and the growth rate of import and export trade slowed down.

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上港集团(600018)：1H22业绩略超预期 疫情下港口龙头彰显韧性

SIPG Group (600018): 1H22 performance slightly exceeded expectations, port leaders showed resilience under the pandemic

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上港集团(600018)：1H22业绩略超预期疫情下港口龙头彰显韧性