Events:
The company released its semi-annual report of 2022: operating income in the first half of 2022 was 16.676 billion yuan, down 2.89% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 230 million yuan, down 88.61% from the same period last year; net profit from non-return was 173 million yuan, down 91.17% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.06 yuan per share.
Guoyuan point of view:
The first half of the year is under pressure, and the scale of financial leases continues to shrink.
22H1 produces 2.58 million tons of machine paper (yoy-8.83%) and sells 2.69 million tons of paper (yoy+4.26%).
The company realized revenue of 16.676 billion yuan (yoy-2.89%) and net profit of 230 million yuan (yoy-88.61%). From a quarterly point of view, Q1-2 achieved revenue of 8.515 billion yuan, 17.14% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 116 million yuan, 90.34% and 86.20% respectively, mainly due to weak market demand and high operating and production costs. From a product point of view, the revenue of white cardboard / a pair of adhesive tape / coated paper / electrostatic paper is 52.28cm, 2.91 billion yuan, 1.914 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, 3.91%, 1.47%, 8.98%, 3.99%, and the performance of pulp products is eye-catching, with a revenue of 240 million yuan (yoy+215.68%). In addition, the company actively expanded overseas sales channels, and overseas sales increased by 120.86% to 3.884 billion yuan. At the same time, the company continued to reduce the scale of financial leasing business, achieving an income of 85 million yuan (yoy-58.22%).
Profit ability short-term pressure, optimistic follow-up profit margin rebound 22H1 attributed to high raw materials and energy prices, superimposed weak market demand, the role of price transmission mechanism is relatively weak, the company's overall profitability short-term pressure, it is expected that with the follow-up adverse factors gradually alleviated, profit margins are expected to rebound. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin fell 15.21pcts to 15.72% year-on-year, and net profit margin fell 10.39pcts to 1.64% year-on-year. From a quarterly point of view, the Q1-2 gross profit margin is 16.19%, 15.23%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-12.89pcts /-18.41pcts. From a product point of view, the gross profit margin of white cardboard / a pair of adhesive tape / coated paper / electrostatic paper is 17.88%, 10.76%, 18.27%, 18.33%, respectively, year-on-year-27.18pcts/-13.70pcts/-18.40pcts/-5.33pcts. In terms of the period expense rate, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate decreased to 0.83% 2.54% / 4.10% respectively compared with the same period last year. The financial expense rate fell 1.56pcts to 6.12% compared with the same period last year, and the company is expected to continue to optimize financial expenses by optimizing financing channels.
The pulp-paper integration strategy is constantly advancing, and the continuous expansion of production capacity supports the long-term growth of the company's business strategy of compressing financial leasing, focusing on the main industry of deep ploughing and papermaking. The company accelerates the strategy of pulp-paper integration and continues to improve the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp to strengthen its cost-end advantage. at present, the company is equipped with chemical pulp production lines in Shouguang, Zhanjiang, Huanggang and other main production bases, with a total production capacity of 4.3 million tons. In terms of new production capacity, the second phase of the Huanggang Chenming project is still under way, and it is estimated that the paper production capacity will increase by 1.5 million tons / year and the mechanical pulp capacity will increase by 520,000 tons / year, which will consolidate the company's leading position in pulp and paper industry. It is expected that the follow-up demand and the mismatch between supply and demand will gradually improve, and the pressure on the superimposed cost side will continue to ease, which may drive the recovery of product sales and prices in the medium and short term in the future, the superimposed company's production capacity will be further released, and the level of ton earnings is expected to continue to improve.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
We believe that with the continuous compression of the scale of the company's financial leasing business and the optimization of capital structure, as the leader of pulp-paper integration, the pace of capacity expansion is clear, and the medium-and long-term market share is expected to increase steadily. We adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company will achieve revenue of 3,2822 million yuan in 2022-2024, respectively, with net profit of 1.044 billion yuan and 0.28 billion yuan for EPS, respectively, and 15.15 times for PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Raw material prices fluctuated sharply, demand growth fell short of expectations, and the progress of new production capacity was lower than expected.