Summary:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company reported that 2022H1's revenue was 3.829 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.31%. Return to the mother net profit of 2.43 billion yuan, with a decrease of about 25.5%, in line with market expectations, the company's waste incineration plate project investment gradually achieved results during the operation period, the proportion of income continued to increase, cement joint operating income has been bottomed out, lithium materials plate reserves are about to be put into operation, it is predicted that the company's 2022-2024 return net profit will be 53.22 billion yuan 65.11 yuan 7.609 billion yuan, maintaining the "holding increase" rating.
The revenue of the garbage disposal plate during the operation period has made a significant contribution, and mergers and acquisitions have accelerated the pace of expansion. The revenue of 2022H1's waste disposal sector increased by 14.52% with 3.054 billion yuan, of which the operating income of 1.207 billion yuan increased by 115%, and the proportion of revenue has reached 40%. This is in line with the previous judgment that the company's operating income has entered a rapid cash along with the release of production capacity. We estimate that the company's acceptance and power generation have increased by about 130% and 140% over the same period last year. During the reporting period, the company completed 11 mergers and acquisitions to speed up the pace of production, it is estimated that the current contract size reached 52,400 tons / day, of which about 32800 tons have been put into production, the process of production climbing and signing will continue to grow.
New energy business reserves are about to begin to be cashed gradually. In the new energy material plate, the company mainly distributes three plates: lithium iron phosphate cathode material, power energy storage battery negative electrode material, and lithium battery recycling, of which the first phase of the positive material annual production project is expected to start gradually from Q3-Q4, and the negative electrode annual output of 200000 tons of power storage battery anode material and 1GWh energy storage PACK production line project is expected to be gradually put into production in 2023H1, and the CKB lithium recovery project has begun to layout. The company's new energy-side business will gradually begin to materialize.
The contribution of cement to equity income is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize. H1 Anhui Conch Cement clinker since the product sales of 128 million tons, with a drop of 16.77%, judging from Q3, the sales side faces the advantage of base period, at the same time, the company is expected to lead the industry again. We estimate that the average ex-factory price of H1 is about 348 yuan / ton, of which the average ex-factory price of Q2 is about 332 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the same period last year. Among them, the average ex-factory price of Q2 is about 332 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the same period last year, but affected by the sharp rise in coal costs, the gross profit per ton is 106 yuan / ton, down 37 yuan / ton from the same period last year, and the net profit per ton is 66 yuan / ton. Judging that with the rebalance of the cement industry, the contribution of cement equity income is expected to stabilize.
Risk hint: environmental regulation is not as expected; cement demand is falling off the cliff.