Performance review
1H22 performance is consistent with profit warning
Company 1H22 revenue year-on-year-79% / month-on-month + 10.2 times to 510 million yuan, homing net loss of 150 million yuan (vs.
1H21 record profit of 1.23 billion yuan, 2H21 adjusted net loss of 460 million yuan), profit performance is consistent with the previous performance warning, mainly due to the severe operating situation in the overseas primary and secondary market in the first half of the year, the company's investment banking business and investment income performance under pressure.
Trend of development
Investment management plate: a substantial increase in management fees, market pressure dragged down the performance of investment income. The income of the investment management division of 1H22 is-86% to 190 million yuan, accounting for 37%, and the operating profit is-92% to 75.4 million yuan. The total asset management scale is unchanged at 48.6 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the new subscription scale effectively offsets the impact of distribution and fair value changes during the period. Among them, 1) the investment income and loss of 100 million yuan (vs. 1H21V + 1.12 billion yuan / 2H21:-6.5 billion yuan) during the reporting period is a drag on the segment performance, but the month-on-month ratio has improved. With the drop in the proportion of AUM in the listed part, we expect that it will be further reduced in the future due to market fluctuations. 2) the support management fee for the fourth phase of fund raising is + 29% to 250 million yuan compared with the same period last year, as of 1H22 US $4 raised US $800 million, RMB 4 completed the first hurdle in April, and the AUM that generated management fees (+ 15% to 27.3 billion yuan from the beginning of the year) continues to rise; 3) net carried interest enters the release period. 1H22 realized carried interest income of 32.75 million yuan (vs. 1H21:412 10,000 yuan / 2H21: 24.69 million yuan) in the current period. The net appendix rights and interests of 1.2 billion yuan were not realized at the end of the period, about half of them are withdrawing from the later stage of the fund, and we expect to accelerate the release in the future.
Investment banking sector: the IPO and FA markets are significantly lower, paying attention to the repair of market sentiment under the progress of follow-up regulatory cooperation. The income of the 1H22 investment bank division was-69% to 230 million yuan, accounting for 45%, with an operating loss of 1.68 million yuan (vs.1H21:+2.8 billion yuan). Stock underwriting, consulting services, sales / trading and brokerage were respectively year-on-year-95% Maqure 50% Universe 41% to 15.56 million yuan / 150 million yuan / 67.3 million yuan, mainly affected by the sharp decline in Hong Kong-US stocks and private equity financing market. The company continued to improve its layout in the cold winter of overseas markets, consolidated its leading position in private equity financing, ranked fourth in Hong Kong stock underwriting market, and promoted the steady development of secondary market business with its underwriting and research advantages. we suggest that we should pay attention to the progress of Sino-US audit regulatory cooperation and business repair under the improvement of market sentiment.
The performance of Huaxing Securities is affected by investment fluctuations, and wealth management strengthens the advantage of alternative assets. 1) 1H22 Huaxing Securities's revenue is-89 to 37.75 million yuan, accounting for 7% of the total. Affected by the fluctuation of Kechuang Investment Board, the investment loss is 21980 yuan (vs. 1H21:+2.7 billion yuan). We expect that the process of investment banking projects will be accelerated in the second half of the year. 2) income from wealth management and other businesses is + 24% to 53.84 million yuan, accounting for 11%. Non-cash AUM is-10% to 5.4 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, of which alternative assets are + 13% to 3.4 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the adjustment of investment income and market financing assumptions, we reduced the profit of 22Universe 23e by 52.1% to 460 million yuan / 850 million yuan; the company traded on 23e 5.0x Pmax E and 0.5x Pmax B, maintaining its outperforming industry rating, and lowered its target price by 21% to HK $12.7 (23e 7.0x Pmax E, 0.8x Pmax BPJ 42% upside) The company's current book quasi-cash assets of 5.1 billion yuan (market capitalization of 5 billion Hong Kong dollars), the valuation of a clear margin of safety, we recommend the layout on the left.
Risk.
In the field of innovation economy, stock prices have been greatly adjusted, industry competition has exceeded expectations, and the regulatory environment is uncertain.