Maintain high performance growth and maintain "buy" rating
The company released its semi-annual report on August 25, showing that 22H1 achieved revenue of 830 million yuan, + 41% year-on-year, and net profit of 190 million yuan, + 31% year-on-year. We downgrade the company's EPS for 22-24 to 1.51 plus 2.07 plus 2.75 yuan (the previous value is 1.60 plus 2.19 plus 2.96). The average 2022PE of the comparable company is 16 times (Wind's consensus expectation). Considering the stable support of the company's affiliated housing enterprises and the higher forecast profit growth, we basically maintain the valuation premium, believing that the company's reasonable 2022 forecast PE of 18 times, the target price of HK $31.04 (previous value of HK $35.56, based on 18 times 2022PE), to maintain the "buy" rating.
Excluding the influence of source tax, the net profit of returning home increased by 40% compared with the same period last year.
22H1's revenue maintained rapid growth, mainly due to revenue from basic property management and non-owner value-added services from + 47% to 5.4 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. The growth of basic material management has benefited from the expansion of the area in the tube, as of 22H1, the company's area in the tube is + 47% to 35.44 million square meters compared with the same period last year. The growth of non-owner value-added services is due to the superior sales performance of the affiliated housing company Binjiang Group (001914.SZ) over the industry (22Q2 Binjiang Group sales volume is + 7% year-on-year, national commercial housing-33%), so that the business has not been hit hard by the property downturn. The year-on-year growth rate of the company's net profit is lower than that of revenue, mainly because: 1. The gross profit margin is affected by changes in business structure, ranging from 1.5pct to 31.5%. Second, the one-time effect of calculating source spring tax.
Excluding the impact of source tax, the company's net profit is + 40% compared with the same period last year.
Affiliated housing companies are expected to provide stable support against the trend, and third-party market development has achieved results. due to the decline in real estate, the support that many property management companies receive from related housing companies is weakening, and even their independence is affected. However, the company's affiliated housing enterprises benefit from the regional advantages of ploughing Hangzhou and the past sound financial performance, and the advantages of sales, investment and financing have been further highlighted. We expect Binjiang Group to continue to provide the company with high-quality business opportunities in managed area and non-owner value-added services. In addition, the company's market-oriented expansion has also achieved results, providing another guarantee for growth. The proportion of 22H1 third-party / non-residential managed area compared with the same period last year + 8.6pct/5.1pct to 52.0% 21.0%.
Slightly lower profit forecast, 22-24 return net profit CAGR is expected to reach 33%. Considering the excellent operating performance of related housing enterprises, we keep the assumption of delivering area and non-owner value-added services unchanged. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the performance of 22H1's community value-added services is not good, we lowered the relevant assumptions. In addition, we have considered the impact of the source tax on the tax rate in 2022. To sum up, we have reduced the company's 22-24 net profit by 6%, 5%, 7%, which is at a lower level among the property management companies we cover, and will maintain 33% CAGR in 22-24.
Risk hint: the business risk brought by the epidemic, the business risk of related housing enterprises, the downward risk of profitability, and community value-added services are lower than expected.