You Ran Animal Husbandry (9858.HK): H1 revenue increased 19% and cost control was excellent

國元證券 · Aug 31, 2022 00:00 · Researches

　　事件

　　8 月29 日，公司公告2022 年中报。22H1 公司实现营收87.07 亿元（+19.4%），净利2.00 亿元（-83.1%），剔除生物资产公平值减销售成本变动因素后，净利调整为10.52 亿元（-3.4%）。

　　22H1 原奶收入超50 亿元，奶牛存栏达44.73 万头1）公司原奶收入快速增长，销售单价高于市场平均。22H1，公司原料奶业务实现收入52.19 亿元（+19.9%）；原料奶产量/销量分别为115.09 万吨/112.77万吨，同比+21.4%/+21.5%，其中特色生鲜乳销量27.14 万吨（+23.7%）。公司原料奶平均单价为4.63 元/公斤（-1.3%），高出同期主产区生鲜乳均价0.43元/公斤，主要由于公司特色生鲜乳比例更高、销售单价更高。

　　2）畜群规模持续扩张，精益运营提高奶牛单产。22H1，公司在中国运营75家牧场，奶牛存栏44.73 万头（+19.1%），其中成母牛20.89 万头，占比46.7%，成母牛占比提升空间大；成母牛（不含娟姗牛）年化单产11.4 吨（+1.8%），其中内蒙优然达到11.9 吨（+1.7%）。

　　3）伊利庞大需求保障公司原奶产能充分消化。22H1，公司自伊利处取得的销售原奶收入为50.29 亿元，占公司原奶业务收入的96.4%（+4.7pct）。

　　4）反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案收入快速增长。22H1，公司反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案业务实现收入34.88 亿元（+18.6%），其中饲料/奶牛养殖耗用品/育种业务分别实现收入31.81/2.46/0.60 亿元，同比+17.3%/+23.2%/+115.3%。

　　优化产品结构控制毛利率降幅，生物资产减值为暂时性影响1）降本增效及优化产品结构控制毛利率降幅。22H1，生鲜乳市场价小幅下行，同时豆粕、玉米、苜蓿草等价格上涨，原奶行业毛利率承压，公司生鲜乳平均饲料成本为2.43 元/公斤，同比大幅上涨14.6%；公司通过提高饲料转化效率和优化产品结构等，将原料奶业务毛利率同比降幅控制在8.1pct，22H1 原料奶业务毛利率为32.3%。

　　2）生物资产公平值减销售成本变动产生暂时性亏损。受原材料价格上涨、原料奶售价下降等因素影响，22H1 公司生物资产公平值减销售成本变动产生的亏损为8.52 亿元，去年同期为收益0.98 亿元，该变动不影响公司实际现金流。

　　3）销售/管理费用管控得当，规模扩张下融资成本增加。22H1，公司销售/管理/财务费用率分别为3.2%/3.8%/5.9%，同比分别-0.4/-0.9/+1.8pct。

　　4）上述因素叠加影响下，22H1 公司归母净利率为2.5%，同比-10.3pct。

　　原奶龙头持续成长，原奶自给缺口仍大

　　1）原奶龙头持续成长。公司目标到2026 年奶牛存栏达到80 万头，正朝该目标稳步推进，并购力度有望持续加大，引领行业集中度提升。

　　2）我国原奶自给缺口仍大。22H1 我国规模以上乳品制造业产量1511 万吨，同期乳品进口折合生鲜乳1048 万吨，原奶自给率较低，加之公司深度绑定下游龙头伊利，产能消化无忧。

　　投资建议

　　公司为原奶龙一，下游需求旺盛，奶牛单产提升空间大，成本控制能力强，畜群规模向2026 年80 万头迈进。我们预计公司2022/2023/2024 年归母净利分别为8.20/19.91/22.76 亿元，增速-47.36%/142.74%/14.34%，对应8 月31 日PE 10/4/3 倍（市值79 亿元），维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示

　　原奶价格下行风险、饲料成本上涨风险、政策调整风险。

Event

On August 29, the company announced its mid-year report of 2022. 22H1 achieved revenue of 8.707 billion yuan (+ 19.4%) and net profit of 200 million yuan (- 83.1%). Excluding changes in the fair value of biological assets minus the cost of sales, the net profit was adjusted to 1.052 billion yuan (- 3.4%).

22H1 raw milk income more than 5 billion yuan, cow stock up to 447300 head 1) the company's raw milk income is growing rapidly, and the sales unit price is higher than the market average. 22H1, the company's raw milk business achieved an income of 5.219 billion yuan (+ 19.9%); raw milk production / sales were 1.1509 million tons / 1.1277 million tons, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 21.4% soybean milk 21.5%, of which characteristic fresh milk sales were 271400 tons (+ 23.7%). The average unit price of raw milk is 4.63 yuan / kg (- 1.3%), which is 0.43 yuan / kg higher than the average price of fresh milk in the main producing areas in the same period, mainly because the proportion of raw milk with company characteristics is higher and the sales unit price is higher.

2) the herd scale continues to expand, and lean operation increases the per unit yield of dairy cows. 22H1, the company operates 75 farms in China, with 447300 cows in stock (+ 19.1%), of which 208900 are adult cows, accounting for 46.7%. Adult cows (excluding Jersey cattle) have an annual yield of 11.4 tons (+ 1.8%), of which Inner Mongolia Youran reached 11.9 tons (+ 1.7%).

3) the huge demand of Yili ensures that the raw milk production of the company can be fully digested. 22H1, the company's raw milk sales revenue from Yili is 5.029 billion yuan, accounting for 96.4% of the company's raw milk business income (+ 4.7pct).

4) the income of systematic solutions for ruminant breeding is growing rapidly. 22H1, the company's ruminant breeding systematic solution business achieved income of 3.488 billion yuan (+ 18.6%), of which the feed / cow breeding consumables / breeding business achieved income of 31.81 million yuan, 2.46 trillion yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 17.3%, 23.2%, 115.3%.

Optimize the product structure to control the reduction of gross profit margin, and the impairment of biological assets has a temporary effect. 1) reduce cost and increase efficiency and optimize product structure to control the decline of gross profit margin. 22H1, the market price of fresh milk declined slightly, while the prices of soybean meal, corn and alfalfa rose slightly, and the gross profit margin of the raw milk industry was under pressure. the company's average feed cost of fresh milk was 2.43 yuan / kg, up 14.6% from the same period last year. By improving feed conversion efficiency and optimizing product structure, the company controlled the year-on-year decline in gross profit margin of raw milk business to 8.1pctt22H1 raw milk business gross profit margin of 32.3%.

2) the change in the fair value of biological assets minus the cost of sales results in temporary losses. Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the decline in the price of raw milk, the loss caused by the change in the fair value of biological assets minus the cost of sales of 22H1 was 852 million yuan, compared with an income of 98 million yuan in the same period last year, which did not affect the company's actual cash flow.

3) the sales / management expenses are properly controlled, and the financing cost increases with the expansion of scale. 22H1, the company's sales / management / financial expense rates are 3.2%, 3.8% and 5.9%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.4/-0.9/+1.8pct.

4) under the superimposed influence of the above factors, the net return rate of 22H1 is 2.5%, year-on-year-10.3pct.

The faucet of raw milk continues to grow, and the gap of self-sufficiency of raw milk is still large.

1) the raw milk faucet continues to grow. The company aims to reach 800000 dairy cows by 2026, which is moving steadily towards this goal, and M & An is expected to continue to increase, leading the industry to increase concentration.

2) the gap of self-sufficiency of raw milk in China is still large. 22H1 China's dairy manufacturing output of 15.11 million tons, dairy imports equivalent to 10.48 million tons of fresh milk, low self-sufficiency rate of raw milk, coupled with the company's deep binding downstream leader Yili, production capacity digestion.

Investment suggestion

The company is the raw milk dragon, the downstream demand is strong, the per unit yield of dairy cows is large, the cost control ability is strong, and the herd scale is striding forward to 800000 head in 2026. We estimate that the company's net profit in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be 8.20, 19.91, 2.276 million yuan respectively, with a growth rate of-47.36%, 142.74%, 14.34%, corresponding to a multiple of PE on August 31, 10-4-3 (market capitalization 7.9 billion yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint

The downward risk of raw milk price, the risk of rising feed cost and the risk of policy adjustment.

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优然牧业(9858.HK)：H1收入增长19% 成本控制出色

You Ran Animal Husbandry (9858.HK): H1 revenue increased 19% and cost control was excellent

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