Focus Today

1. CITIC: lower the required reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits and send a signal to stabilize the exchange rate

2. Shen Wanhongyuan: the level of EU natural gas reserves has reached 81%, which can basically meet the demand for this winter.

3. Guojin Securities: industry reshuffle, inflection point established, a good time for the layout of high-quality housing enterprises

4. Guotai Junan: the focus of the next stage of investment is on the growth category of consumer stocks

5. CITIC: the valuation of the consumer industry is currently in a reasonable range

6. HSBC Research: generally lower the target price of domestic silver stocks, bullish on Bank of China Ltd. (03988.HK) and Bank of Communications (03328.HK)

7. CICC: lower the target price of XPeng Inc. (09868.HK) to HK $114, outperforming the industry

8. Jeffery: covers China waiver (01880.HK) for the first time and gives a buy rating with a target price of HK $247.3

9. Deutsche Bank: for the first time, Weibo Corp (09898.HK) holds a rating with a target price of HK $182,

10. CICC: raise the target price of Haidilao International Holding (06862.HK) to HK $19, outperforming the industry

11. Macquarie: the first vitamin milk group (00345.HK) outperformed the market rating, with a target price of HK $17.30

12. Credit Suisse: reduce the target price of minimally invasive Medicine (00853.HK) from HK $19.99 to HK $17.50, with a neutral rating

13. Daiwa: raise the target price of JD Health (06618.HK) from HK $75 to HK $77, rating buy

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

• CITIC: lower the required reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits and send a signal to stabilize the exchange rate

CITIC said that in the context of the recent rapid depreciation of the renminbi, the central bank announced a 2 percentage point reduction in foreign exchange reserve requirements. This measure can increase the dollar liquidity of domestic financial institutions and send a signal of exchange rate stability. Over the past period of time, the central bank has adjusted the required reserve ratio for foreign exchange deposits three times, which can boost confidence in the short term. We believe that although there is still a slight depreciation pressure on the RMB in the short term, the exchange rate should stabilize after the fundamental recovery in the medium term, and the central bank also has sufficient tools to ensure that the exchange rate is basically stable. It is estimated that the exchange rate center of the US dollar against the RMB will be 6.7-6.9 by the end of the year.

• Shen Wanhongyuan: the level of EU natural gas reserves has reached 81%, which can basically meet the demand for this winter.

Song Tao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, estimated that at present, the overall natural gas reserve level of the European Union has reached 81%, and Beixi No. 1 is operating at full capacity in the first half of the year, which can basically meet the demand for this winter. If Beixi No.1 maintains a supply interruption in 2023, the EU natural gas supply gap in 23 years will reach 67.5 billion cubic meters, corresponding to 116.23 million tons of raw coal, equivalent to a 106% increase in EU coal imports in 23 years, making it difficult to purchase.

II. Industry plate

• Guojin Securities: industry reshuffle, inflection point established, a good time for the layout of high-quality housing enterprises

According to the latest research report of Guojin Securities, 1. High-quality housing enterprises have stabilized the trend of recovery, the policy of adequate supply is good, and the sales inflection point has been basically established. 2. We estimate that the center of the sales area of commercial housing in the next decade is about 1 billion square meters, and the market is still huge. 3. The position of difficult housing enterprises in the real estate market will gradually decline, while the market share of central state-owned enterprises and improved housing enterprises will increase accordingly. 4. Central state-owned enterprises and improved housing enterprises have the ability to increase their market share: liquidity advantage; profit level is expected to improve; financing is smooth, cash flow is safe and steady. Investment advice: the first to actively acquire land since the second half of 2021, and mainly improve the products of housing enterprises, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, Binjiang Group. Steady selection of head state-owned enterprises with healthy financial structure and safe cash flow, such as Poly Development and China Overseas Land & Investment.

• Guotai Junan: the focus of the next stage of investment is on the growth category of consumer stocks

Guotai Junan pointed out that the focus of the next stage of investment is on the growth category of consumer stocks, which should be distinguished according to the level of risk characteristics. Value stocks refer to stocks with low risk characteristics, while growth stocks refer to stocks with high risk characteristics. In the future, we will focus on the investment opportunities of growing consumer stocks such as beer, tourism, hotels, cosmetics and so on.

• CITIC: the valuation of the consumer industry is currently in a reasonable range

CITIC research newspaper pointed out that the impact of the local epidemic situation of Q2 is relatively strong, the overall performance of consumer reporting is weak, and income continues to slow down, but it actively reflects the ability of consumer enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the profit side shows a certain degree of resilience. Structurally, the profit growth rate of alcohol, textile manufacturing, household and food sectors is at the top; the growth rate of beauty makeup, brand clothing and beverages is more obvious than that of Q1; the overall seriously damaged performance continues to be mainly concentrated in the retail and service sectors. The valuation of the consumer industry is currently in a reasonable range, and the consumer industry boom has shown a marginal repair trend since the second half of the year, but the repair efforts are weak, so the changes in epidemic control and economic expectations are important. Under good circumstances, it is expected to promote the recovery of the economy. It is suggested to configure step by step, one is to continue to configure the most relevant travel chain of post-epidemic recovery, and the other is to add a strong energy track that represents consumption prosperity, such as liquor, makeup, sports and so on.

• HSBC Research: generally lower the target price of domestic silver stocks, bullish on Bank of China Ltd. (03988.HK) and Bank of Communications (03328.HK)

The bank pointed out that at the beginning of the year, it was more inclined to defensive domestic bank stocks. With the announcement of results in the first half of the year and the rise in internal housing risks, the bank saw three major changes, including financial management, mortgages and other retail loans under pressure; having international business and flexible financing costs is the key to outperforming the market; and slower growth is a good thing. HSBC generally lowered the target price of domestic silver stocks and transferred its preference to Bank of China (03988.HK) and Bank of Communications (03328.HK). At the same time, it also saw that the Postal savings Bank (01658.HK) had a positive catalyst, with all three shares rated as "buy".

III. Individual stocks

• CICC: downgrade$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$The target price is HK $114, which outperforms the industry.

CICC issued a rating report that XPeng Inc. Q2 Non-GAAP net loss of 2.46 billion yuan, excluding the exchange loss of 938 million yuan, the company's performance is in line with market expectations. The bank said XPeng Inc. Q3 delivery guidelines ranged from 29000 to 31000 vehicles, below market forecasts, but reiterated that the market should consider paying less attention to short-term fluctuations in delivery and optimistic about the company's new product cycle next year. CICC said the XPeng Inc. G9 planned to make its debut at the Chengdu auto show and planned to launch in September and deliver in October, citing sufficient orders for G9 models and expected delivery of more than 10, 000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, taking into account the company's production capacity. CICC cut its target price by 21 per cent to HK $114, maintaining its rating as an outperforming industry.

• Jeffery: first coverage$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$Give a buy rating with a target price of HK $247.3

Jeffery issued a report covering the study of China exemption for the first time, giving its shares a buy rating with a target price of HK $247.3. The bank said that China exemption held a profit conference call earlier, and although management maintained its financial target for this year and explained that it would strengthen its online business, due to the impact of the recent epidemic and the slower recovery of duty-free shops at the port in the next two years, the group's profit forecast for this year to 2024 is more conservative, with earnings forecasts of 30%, 13% and 18% during the downward adjustment period.

• Deutsche Bank: the first$WB-SW (09898.HK)$Hold a rating with a target price of HK $182

Deutsche Bank analyst Leo Chiang first gave Weibo Corp a rating and a target price of HK $182. He believes that Weibo Corp is still not close to the inflection point of sales growth. Chiang told investors in a research note that although the second-quarter report was slightly better than expected thanks to ecommerce promotions during the 618th shopping festival, the pace of recovery was likely to slow in the third quarter due to the macro environment and the epidemic. In addition, the analyst pointed out that Weibo Corp's main customers in the vertical field of advertising sentiment is still low.

• CICC: upward adjustment$Haidilao International Holding (06862.HK)$The target price is HK $19, which outperforms the industry.

CICC said in a report that Haidilao International Holding's income in the first half of the year fell 16.6% to 16.76 billion yuan, with a net loss of 266 million yuan, mainly due to the closure and suspension of some restaurants under the "woodpecker" reform plan, as well as the rebound of the epidemic, resulting in an one-time loss of 308 million yuan in long-term asset disposal and impairment provisions, and its performance was generally in line with the earlier profit warning. The bank expects Haidilao International Holding's overall table turnover to increase by about 15 per cent year-on-year in July. In view of the recovery of the epidemic and the improvement in store operations, the company expects to launch the "hard bone" program and consider reopening some stores closed under the "woodpecker" program, which CICC believes reflects management confidence in business adjustment.

• Macquarie: the first$Vitasoy International (00345.HK)$Outperform the market rating, with a target price of HK $17.3

Macquarie published a research report that Vitasoy is a plant-based beverage and RTD tea company with operations in the mainland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and the Philippines. The bank believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, fiscal year 2022 is a trough for Vitasoy. However, the bank believes that Vitasoy is in a strong position in the mainland market because of the growth of its plant-based protein beverage business and the good performance of new products such as Vita oat milk and Vita sparkling tea. It is also expected that as consumers pay more and more attention to healthy eating habits, the company is estimated to have a strong profit growth rate of 39% in fiscal year 2024-2027. It will be rated to outperform the market for the first time, with a target price of HK $17.3.

• Credit Suisse: will$MICROPORT (00853.HK)$The target price was lowered from HK $19.99 to HK $17.5, with a neutral rating.

Credit Suisse reported that the half-year net loss of minimally invasive medical care expanded by nearly 1.2 times year-on-year, which was lower than expected, but believed that the net loss would begin to narrow in the second half of the year. The bank forecast a net loss per share of 11 per cent, 10.6 per cent and 22.3 per cent respectively for minimally invasive care this year and the year after, with a neutral rating of HK $17.5 from HK $19.99. According to the report, except for the business of vascular medicine, all divisions recorded losses in the first half of the year. The management pointed out that the disruption of the supply chain and logistics due to the impact of the epidemic, coupled with the temporary impact of increased costs caused by inflation in overseas countries. The bank expects these more mature divisions to return to profitability in the second half of the year and beyond.

• Daiwa: will$JD Health (06618.HK)$The target price is raised from HK $75 to HK $77, rating buy

Daiwa published a research report that the General Administration of Market Supervision issued the measures for the Supervision and Administration of online Drug sales to regulate drug online sales, and the new rules will eliminate regulatory uncertainty in the market. As the authorities offered a three-month grace period, Daiwa said it believed that JD Health management would respond flexibly to changes in regulatory requirements. The company said it had made backup plans for different scenarios of online drug sales regulation, and expected that regulatory adjustments would have little impact on its business. Daiwa also pointed out that as the third-party sales business contributes to the company's higher profit source of revenue, it is believed that the market concern about JD.com 's gross profit margin may also ease after the introduction of the new rules, and reiterated the buy rating, raising the target price from HK $75 to HK $77.