Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein said weaker European airlines were at greater risk of bankruptcy this winter as the government bailing out airlines during the COVID-19 epidemic shifted its attention elsewhere in the face of rising inflation, Zhitong Financial APP learned.

Bernstein says European airlines have barely closed down thanks to massive government aid, but airlines are now under pressure from rising fuel and labour costs and seasonal declines in travel. At the same time, governments are grappling with soaring household bills.

Alex Irving and Clementine Flinois, Bernstein analysts, said small airlines in central and eastern Europe would be the most vulnerable, citing a new model for assessing bankruptcy risk based on the level of competition and capacity, the route network and the possible cost of leasing and replacing aircraft.

Bernstein said the risks faced by Europe's six biggest airlines were negligible, with low-cost airlines such as RYAAY.US, ESYJY.US and Wizz maintaining investment-grade credit ratings and traditional airlines such as AFRAF.US, International Aviation Group and DLAKY.US still receiving government assistance if necessary.

The airlines most affected include one from Cyprus and two from Albania, as well as airlines from Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Moldova and Romania.

Bernstein believes that the strongest airlines in Eastern Europe are expected to benefit, mainly Wizz Airlines and Ryanair, which are headquartered in Budapest, Hungary. The two companies have the ability to quickly allocate aircraft to newly vacated markets.