On Monday (September 5), Hong Kong coal stocks soared.$Yancoal Australia (03668.HK)$It rose more than 14% in intraday trading.$YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$Increase by more than 12%$YITAI COAL (03948.HK)$Increase by more than 9%$CHINA COAL (01898.HK)$Increase by more than 7%$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$It's up more than 4%.

According to a research report released by open source securities, the European Union's ban on reducing natural gas consumption and imposing sanctions on Russian coal have come into effect one after another. As a result of overseas supply shortages and soaring demand, the world is still in a state of grabbing coal, which will put great pressure on China's coal imports. The spot price of Newcastle Gaoca thermal coal continued to rise 3.32% month-on-month last week. In addition, Gazprom announced that the "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline will stop gas indefinitely, which will lead to an even more energy shortage in Europe.

Thermal coal prices continued to rise last week. Cinda Securities believes thatAt present, it is in the early stage of a new cycle of coal economy, the fundamentals and policies resonate, and it is the right time to allocate the coal plate at this stage.

The influencing factors of the epidemic situation in the upper reaches continue to suppress the supply, the utilization rate of coal mine capacity in Sanxi region has dropped, and the output has contracted significantly in the short term. During the peak and summer period this year, in order to achieve the task of energy supply, coal enterprises have produced high-intensity production for a long time, and the maintenance time of normal coal mine production has been compressed, resulting in frequent coal accidents.

According to a briefing released by the Shanxi Bureau of the State Administration of Mine Safety, from January to July, there were 26 fatal accidents in coal mines in Shanxi Province, with 28 deaths, an increase of 20 and 19 over the same period last year, up 333.33% and 211.11% respectively.

The continuous high-intensity and super-capacity mining in the upper reaches reflects the serious shortage of coal production capacity due to the lack of investment in coal mine construction during the 13th five-year Plan period. In the face of the growing energy consumption demand downstream, the pattern of coal supply and demand continues to tighten.

Given the 3-5-year production capacity construction and release cycle of coal mines, the agency believes that coal prices may remain high and rise centrally over the next three years, and this round of energy inflation is likely to be more persistent than expected.

Cinda Securities also saidUnder the logic of big energy inflation, grasping the high-quality coal enterprises with high barriers, high cash and high dividends, the coal sector is expected to usher in a historic market with both performance and valuation.

On the basis of the above, the agency said that it continues to be bullish on the coal sector in an all-round way and recommends that it continue to pay attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. From the bottom up, focus on two main lines:

• First, there is large room for endogenous and epitaxial growth, excellent resource endowment and excellent corporate governance.$YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$, Shaanxi Coal Industry,$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$、$CHINA COAL (01898.HK)$等；

• Second, the special scarcity of global resources, there is room for growth of high-quality coking company Ping Coal shares, Panjiang shares, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal and so on.