Zhitong Financial APP learned that according to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of September 1,The agreement price of lithium carbonate market reached 493600 yuan / ton., up 3.8% from the lowest price in May. At present, the agreement price of the main flow in the market is from 490000 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of some bulk orders has been higher than 500000 yuan / ton. CITIC predictsThe tight trend of lithium supply in the second half of the year is difficult to change, the probability of prices continuing to rise is high, and the high demeanor of the lithium industry is expected to continue.Related concept stocks: Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), Salt Lake shares (000792.SZ), Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ), Tibet Mining (000762.SZ), Rongjie shares (002192.SZ).

Analysts generally believe that the probability of lithium prices continuing to rise is high. Among them, Chen Guanghui, an analyst at Cinda Securities, believes that the demand is strong, the supply is relatively insufficient, and the price of lithium carbonate still has the power to rise.It is expected to exceed 500000 yuan / ton. According to a research report released on August 28 by Wang Qi, an analyst at Guosheng Securities,Triple factors of power restriction, epidemic situation and "gold, silver and silver" effectLead to the shortage of lithium salt supply.Support the persistently high price of lithium。

It is reported that the research report released at the recent 2022 China Lithium Battery Industry Summit predicted that the demand for power and energy storage is expected to continue to improve, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is expanding rapidly, and the available capacity of lithium iron phosphate nationwide may increase to 3.35 million tons by the end of 2022. The proportion of lithium iron phosphate energy storage batteries worldwide is expected to exceed 80 per cent by 2025. The report shows that in the lithium raw material market, the mismatch between supply and demand has led to the high price of lithium ore, which is expected to be loosened to a certain extent in 2023; the new production capacity will be about 400000 tons of LCE next year.

On the supply side, on August 14, the Sichuan Electric Power Company of the State Grid suddenly issued an urgent notice on expanding the implementation scope of industrial enterprises to transfer electricity to the public. The lithium salt production in Sichuan accounts for nearly 30% of the national lithium salt production and 20% of the global lithium salt production. In terms of production, the power cuts for at least six days will reduce lithium carbonate production in Sichuan by about 1120 tons (3 per cent of the industry) and lithium hydroxide production by about 1690 tons (about 8 per cent of the industry), according to SMM data. Taking into account the actual production process, the overall impact on the number of production days is estimated at 7-8 days, resulting in a rapid contraction in the supply of the industry.

On the demand side, the new energy vehicle market was steadily improving in August. According to the Federation of passengers, retail sales of new energy vehicles in August are expected to be 520000, an increase of 108.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 7% month-on-month, and a penetration rate of 27.7%. The direct suppression of consumption by the epidemic has been alleviated, and the production lines of the leading manufacturers of new energy have been upgraded and their production capacity expanded in the second half of the year. At the same time, with the arrival of the traditional gold consumption season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to show rapid growth.

Major iron lithium manufacturers are active in purchasing, especially the iron lithium leading enterprises that were newly put into production in August. This time, lithium will communicate with three-yuan head enterprises, and all feedback on lithium carbonate inventory in August is significantly lower than that in June-July. At the same time, in addition to the tram demand, some lithium cobalt oxide enterprises + lithium fluoride enterprises have obvious feedback that the demand will pick up from August to September, and the marginal demand growth will also significantly affect the price. In the second half of this year, there is basically no incremental purchase of bulk orders, lithium prices will continue to strengthen.

The increase in demand is accompanied by a decrease in supply and a tight supply of goods in the market, and the price of lithium carbonate has recently begun to rise. Industry insiders said that driven by the growth in sales of new energy vehicles and the rise in lithium concentrate prices, as well as recent power cuts in Sichuan and other factors, lithium carbonate prices may welcome a new round of rise.

Driven by the price of lithium, the performance of lithium listed companies rose sharply in the first half of the year, achieving booming production and sales. Among themThe return net profit of Tianqi Lithium Industry, Tibet Mining, Rongjie shares, Tianhua Chaojing and other companies increased more than 10 times in the first half of the year.The first-half net profit of Shengxin LiNeng, Yongxing Materials, Jiangte Motor and China Mineral Resources increased by more than 6 times, while that of Ganfeng Lithium, Salt Lake and Zangge Mining increased by more than 3 times in the first half.

Societe Generale Securities believes that the domestic salt lake manufacturers are in full production period, the mine end manufacturers are limited by the tight supply of lithium concentrate, and the supply side tension continues. Sales of new energy vehicles continue to be hot, and there is a strong demand for lithium salts downstream. Lithium prices will continue to rise as demand picks up further in August-September.

Everbright Securities said that the high price of lithium concentrate is still good for companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources. It is suggested to pay attention to Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng Lithium, Rongjie shares and China Mineral Resources; the geopolitical risks of overseas resources still exist for a long time, and domestic independent and controllable lithium resources are of great strategic significance. It is suggested to pay attention to Shengxin Lithium Energy, Ya Hua Group, Salt Lake shares, which distribute domestic lithium resources.

Related concept stocks:

Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ): lithium mining leader, holding 23.75% of foreign mining SQM company, SQM's mine may reach 180000 tons of lithium carbonate and 30,000 tons of lithium hydroxide production capacity in 2022. In addition, Terrison concentrate has a production capacity of 1.62 million tons per year in 2021, and Tianqi Lithium holds a 26.01% interest.

Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ): lithium mine leader, Ganfeng Lithium announced on the evening of July 11 that his wholly-owned subsidiary intends to acquire no more than 100% of Lithea, with a total consideration of no more than $962 million (about 6.4 billion yuan). Lithea is mainly engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of lithium mining rights, and its main asset PPG project is the lithium salt lake project in Salta province, Argentina, including two lithium salt lake assets, Pozuelos and PastosGrandes.

Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ): the company said on the interactive platform on August 26th that at present, the daily output of lithium carbonate is stable at more than 100t, and its lithium carbonate sales are based on market demand and marketing strategy.

Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ): subsidiary Oyino Mining has the mining right of Yilonggou in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province, with proven reserves of 275400 tons of LCE. The project was put into production in 2019 and the current annual production capacity of 405000 tons of raw ore. Indonesia Shengxin is building an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of lithium salt in Indonesia's Central Sulawesi Province, which is expected to be completed and put into production in 2023. The company recently said on the interactive platform that Sui Ningsheng's new 30,000-ton lithium salt project is now close to the design capacity.

Tibet Mining (000762.SZ): the company plans to produce 9500 tons of lithium concentrate in 2022, it said on the investor interactive platform on Aug. 8. With the promotion of Baowu, the development of Zabuye Salt Lake has been accelerated.

Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192.SZ): the raw mineral energy of lithium mine is 1.05 million tons / year, and the capacity of refined minerals is 450000 tons / year. The existing production capacity of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 3000 tons / year and lithium hydroxide is 1800 tons / year. 002497.SZ: in response to investors' questions on the interactive platform on July 11, the company said that the company's comprehensive lithium salt production capacity will reach 73000 tons after the first phase of Ya'an Lithium Industry Phase II construction project is put into production at the end of this year.