From the August 24 standing Committee clearly proposed to implement another 19 successive policies, to the 8.31 standing Committee put more emphasis on supervision and implementation, the standing Committee has continued to deploy stable economic policies since August, indicating the government's determination to stabilize growth. With the introduction of a series of incremental policies since the middle of the year, policy banks and state-owned enterprises will play a greater role in stabilizing growth, and this year's policy intensity is gradually approaching 2020. After the introduction of 19 successive policies, the landing period will be ushered in at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, and it is expected that it may be difficult to increase in the short term. Whether there will be new stimulus before the end of the year will depend on the economic recovery at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Beijing, 31 Aug (Xinhua)-- Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on 31 August to listen to reports on the supervision and service work of stabilizing the overall economic market, and to make arrangements to fully release the effectiveness of policies and speed up the expansion of effective demand; determine measures to further optimize the business environment and reduce institutional transaction costs, and continue to reduce the vitality of market players.

Since August, the National standing Committee has continued to deploy stable economic policies, demonstrating its determination to stabilize growth.

On 24 August, the State standing Committee clearly proposed that while implementing a package of policies to stabilize the economy, 19 successive policies should be implemented, including determining the space for the use of more than 500 billion yuan in special debt limits, and increasing the quota of policy-oriented development financial instruments of more than 300 billion yuan. support central power generation enterprises and other enterprises to issue 200 billion yuan of special debt for energy supply. After 19 successive policies, the 8.31 regular meeting further made it clear that "follow-up policy rules should be issued in the first ten days of September." on the one hand, it reflects the consistency of a package of policies to stabilize the economy, and on the other hand, it also shows the determination of policies to support "steady growth." The financial semi-annual report recently released by the Ministry of Finance also emphasizes the fiscal and monetary linkage.

As far as specific grasp is concerned

1) expand effective investment:Infrastructure aspectIt is emphasized that we should make good use of the new quota of 300 billion yuan of policy-oriented financial instruments and further expand the field of support for policy-oriented development financial instruments.In manufacturing industryPolicies to support the renewal and transformation of equipment in manufacturing enterprises and vocational colleges have been introduced. In the project construction, on the one hand, guide commercial banks to support relevant medium-and long-term loans to meet the funding needs of qualified projects as far as possible; on the other hand, improve the examination and approval efficiency of key projects and speed up the physical workload of projects.Real estateDue to the continuous increase of urban policy, Baojiao building is mentioned again to support the demand for rigid and improved housing.

2) consumption area:Promote bulk consumption such as cars.

3) Policy implementationAnother batch of supervision and service working groups will be sent to a number of provinces to promote policy implementation.

Although the macro policy stimulus planned for the two sessions at the beginning of the year is relatively conservative, with the introduction of a series of incremental policies since the middle of the year, this year's policy intensity is gradually approaching 2020:

First, a large part of this year's policy increment is reflected in the efforts of policy banks.The total amount of new loans of the three policy banks in normal years is slightly more than 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.6 trillion yuan in 2020. Since 2022, the amount of new loans of policy banks has increased significantly, and may reach 2.7 trillion for the whole year. With the increase of policy financial instruments and new special debts gradually identified since the middle of the year, the net contribution of the combined caliber of treasury bonds + local bonds + policy bank loans to the economy in 2022 is expected to reach about 10 trillion, accounting for 9% of last year's GDP, second only to 10.1% in 2020.

第Second, in addition to the above caliber, many more specific policies that rely on the efforts of state-owned enterprises have been introduced this year:For example, the 33 measures support the National Railway Group to issue 300 billion yuan of railway construction bonds, and 19 stable growth policies support the central power generation enterprises to issue 200 billion yuan of special bonds for energy guarantee and supply, and so on. These specific policies, which rely on other state-owned enterprises, can also provide an incremental boost to the real economy.

Third, the supervision and implementation of stronger efforts, more emphasis on policy cooperation.At the beginning of the year, state-owned financial institutions turned over profits and strengthened the cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies. Recently, the State Council has sent a working group to supervise and serve the overall economic market, led by the main responsible comrades of the constituent departments of the State Council, to work together in a number of major economic provinces to promote the implementation of policies. All these measures help to enhance the effectiveness of the policy of stabilizing growth.

Judging from the above three factors, the support of the current policy to the economy may be close to 2020, and the 19 successive policies will usher in the landing period, and it may be difficult to add them in the short term, but the possibility of continuing to introduce incremental policies at the discretion of the end of the year cannot be ruled out.

This year, the situation at home and abroad is complex and grim. Under the requirement of "reasonable and moderate policy scale", the policy has adopted a discretionary model, and incremental policies have been introduced one after another: from six major measures to stabilize growth in the middle of the year, to the recent 19 policies to stabilize growth, the policy has always been a combination of "patching" and "implementation", which ensures sufficient stimulus while controlling the redundancy of the policy. After the 19 stable growth policies of the National standing Committee, there is little chance of introducing new policies in the short term, and it will be more likely to implement them and observe the effect of the policies on boosting the economy. Whether there will be new stimulus before the end of the year will depend on the economic recovery at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. In the environment of persistent local epidemic disturbance and real estate "financial accelerator" stall, the demand of the private sector and the credit creation capacity of the financial system are weak, so the possibility of further incremental stimulus policies before the end of the year cannot be ruled out.