Under short-term pressure, revenue increased by 34% over the same period last year, while net profit from home decreased by about 540 million yuan, an increase of about 34% over the same period last year. 2.2%2022H1 's net interest rate was about 29.27 million yuan, down about 2.2% from the same period last year. The net profit from non-return was 24.93 million yuan, down 12% from the same period last year, and the first-half performance was lower than expected.
2022Q2 achieved revenue of 288 million yuan, an increase of about 26% over the same period last year, an increase of about 14% over the same period last year, a net profit of 19.92 million yuan, an increase of about 26% over the same period last year, an increase of about 113% over the previous year, and a net profit of 16.42 million yuan from the same period last year, an increase of about 6% over the same period last year and an increase of about 93% over the previous year.
The profitability of 2022H1 is affected by many factors. Gross profit margin / net profit margin fell 5.59% year on year, 1.98pct2022H1: sales gross margin 13.16%, down 5.59pct year-on-year; net sales margin 5.41%, down 1.98pct After deducting the net profit of non-sales by 4.61%, the year-on-year decline in 2.37pct and the short-term pressure on profitability are mainly due to: 1) the adverse impact of COVID-19 's epidemic situation: the company's start-up was affected by the epidemic in Quzhou in March, while the Q2 epidemic in Shanghai affected downstream demand; 2) the price of bulk raw materials is high: the company's main raw materials are steel pipes and forgings, accounting for more than 70% of the main business cost. The price of steel and other raw materials has continued to rise since 2021. Although the price of 2022H1 steel has declined from its peak in 2021, the price is still high, and there is a lag in the company's transfer cost pressure to downstream customers. 3) Yinchuan subsidiary: it is still in the capacity climbing stage and is expected to be in a state of loss in the first half of the year; 3) Heat treatment project: the progress of the project affected by the epidemic is not as expected. 2022Q2: sales gross profit margin 14.51%, down 3.46pct, increased 2.88pct month-on-month; sales net profit margin 6.92%, year-on-year increase in 0.01pct, improved 3.23pct. Thus it can be seen that the profitability of 2022Q2 has entered the rebound channel.
Looking to the future, in the short term, with the gradual release of pre-investment capacity, profitability is expected to improve; in the long run, volume and profit will rise to the world's first-class bearing ring manufacturers.
In the short term, with the gradual production of the third heat treatment production line in the second half of the year, the profitability of the Yinchuan subsidiary project and the volume of the precision grinding workshop with an annual production capacity of 500 million precision bearing rings, the company's profitability is expected to improve. In the long run, the growth path of the company is clear. 1) "quantity" promotion: the company promotes its market share by opening up new customers, expanding production areas with old customers and enriching the product matrix; 2) "profit" promotion: by making up the short board of the industrial chain (that is, extending the process forward to forging processing, backward extending the process to heat treatment and fine grinding), the company's profitability can be increased by up to 6-7pct, which is expected to reach more than 15% in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
Revenue in 2022-2024 is expected to be 11, 17 and 2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 25%, 55% and 32% over the same period last year, and the net profit of home is 0.68,1.55 and 282 million yuan, an increase of 8%, 127% and 82% over the same period last year, corresponding to the "buy" rating of PE 32max 14max 8X.
Risk tips: 1) fluctuation of raw material prices; 2) high customer concentration.