22H1 performance is in line with expectations, month-on-month improvement is obvious. 22H1 achieved revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, + 36.27% year-on-year, and net profit of 175 million yuan,-14.52% year-on-year. 22Q2's revenue was 1.34 billion yuan, + 25.72% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 114 million yuan,-11.9% from the same period last year. 22H1 wind power tower tube pile gross profit margin of 11.18%, year-on-year-10.25pct. The reasons for the decline in profits are: (1) the sea breeze grabs and installs the tide to retreat, the sea breeze tower pile quantity falls even; (2) the raw material runs high, the tower pile profit is impacted; (3) the epidemic situation affects the progress of 22H1 wind power construction.
22H2 sales are expected to increase, and the profit per ton will be significantly improved. 22H1 domestic wind power newly installed 12.96GW, of which sea breeze 0.9GW 42GW 22H2 is expected to exceed the domestic wind power installation, of which sea breeze 5GW +. The delivery volume of 22H2 will increase significantly, with expected sales of 550000 tons and higher capacity utilization; the proportion of 22H2's sea breeze sales will increase, overseas sea breeze single pile is expected to achieve a small amount of delivery, and the product structure will be improved. The small tower tube pile factories of domestic land breeze and sea breeze are withdrawing one after another, the industry pattern is gradually improving, and the profit per ton of the industry is expected to stabilize and pick up in the future.
The construction of the wind farm is advancing rapidly, and the land wind production capacity remains stable. The company started wind farm investment construction in 2021, in the construction of wind farm 300MW, plans to grid-connected power generation within this year. The company plans to build a grid-connected 2GW new energy project within three years and reserve new energy development resources 5GW. The company maintains Fuxin base (200000 tons), Zhangjiakou base (200000 tons) and Xingan base (100000 tons), totaling 500000 tons.
The domestic sea breeze card position is in the lead, and the overseas sea breeze order is released. At present, Shandong Haifeng only has large-scale sea breeze production capacity, and the company's Penglai capacity plans to expand from 500000 tons to 800000 tons; Yangjiang sea breeze production capacity of the company is expected to be 200000 tons this year and 500000 tons next year, with a total planning of 700000 tons; Shantou sea breeze capacity planning is larger than Yangjiang, and the total production capacity of sea breeze is more than 2 million tons. The company has won a single order for sea breeze in Europe and the United States, and overseas sea breeze orders are expected to break out further. The company's Penglai wharf has the transport capacity of single pile export to Europe and the United States, and has unique resource barriers. The company has reached good cooperation with international sea wind owners such as Rhine Energy, Scottish Power, European Ocean Wind Power and North Land Wind Power.
Profit forecast: Haifeng capacity orders are expanding rapidly, the company is expected to accelerate the release of profits, raising profit expectations. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 6.97 / 12.84 / 1.857 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 38 / 21 / 14 times. Give 2023 27 times PE, raise the target price to 62.66 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the development of sea breeze is not as expected; performance forecast and valuation judgment are not as expected