Main points of investment
The performance of core biopharmaceuticals was stable, and the market share increased steadily: in the first half of 2022, Tebiao achieved sales revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year, and a market share of 66% in terms of sales, continuing to rank first in the platelet drug market. Together, iBio and Cyber achieved sales revenue of 530 million yuan, further increasing their market share to 44.1% compared with the end of last year, and continued to take the lead in the domestic lycopene market. Septin achieved sales revenue of about 68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112%.
The hair health business is growing rapidly, and a variety of channels help to open up the market: in the first half of 2022, Mandy achieved sales revenue of 370 million yuan, an increase of 42% over the same period last year. Cinema, drugstore and e-commerce make simultaneous efforts to promote the rapid growth of product revenue. A variety of dosage forms and the surrounding product matrix jointly open up the market space.
CDMO business continues to grow, with on-hand orders growing rapidly over the same period last year: in the first half of 2022, the company's CDMO business achieved revenue of about 55 million yuan, an increase of 38.1% over the same period last year. Up to now, the company has a total of more than 20 ongoing CDMO projects, with orders worth more than 100 million yuan, a substantial increase over the same period last year, and one antibody drug product has been applied for NDA listing and has been accepted.
The company's new drug research and development is advancing steadily: in the first half of 2022, the company made a number of important progress in research and development, with a total R & D cost of 290 million yuan. As of June 30, the R & D pipeline included 33 products under research, of which 26 were developed as national innovative drugs, 11 as tumor products, 13 as autoimmune products, 9 as nephrology products and 1 as dermatology products.
Profit forecast and valuation: at present, the performance of the company's core products is stable, and the CDMO business continues to make efforts. We give the forecast revenue of 74.83,88.86 and 10.074 billion yuan in 2022-2024, an increase of 17.25%, 18.75% and 13.36% over the same period last year, and the forecast net profit of 18.19,20.01 and 2.168 billion yuan in 2022-2024. Maintain the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hints: intensified market competition, slower-than-expected R & D speed, risk of R & D failure, policy changes, etc.