Frontier Industry | Insurance Series 2: The Five Development Processes of Chinese Insurers

富途资讯 · Nov 23, 2018 16:20

精编自海通证券：《保险股十年复盘系列之二：保险股十年股价走势与基本面详细解读》

中国保险业，自2007年险企三巨头中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保登陆A股来，已经走过了十年风雨路。复盘十年发展历程，中国保险业大至经历了五大阶段：尽享红利->做大规模->积重难返->回归本源->华丽转型。读懂历史，是为了更好地把握未来，本文是保险行业系列研究第二篇。富途研选 | 保险系列一：保险股价的三大驱动因素

1、2007年：三巨头登陆A股，共享红利时代的繁荣

1）1999年保监会将寿险保单的预定利率调整为不超过年复利2.5%，费率管制下的传统险对于客户的吸引力大幅下降，这带来了分红险、万能险、投连险等新型保险的发展良机。2007年，为应对利率上行，上市险企普遍加强投连险和万能险销售力度，当年保费同比增长22%，增速较2006年提升10ppt。投连险占比9%，达到历史高点。
2）银保占比继续提高，2007年年末已超1/3，而银保渠道在2003时占比仅为17%。期交新业务同比+50%以上，增幅明显。
3）行业代理人增速提升；中国平安代理人产能远超同行，代理人增速高达47%。
4）受资本市场强周期特性影响，行业投资收益率大幅飙升至12%，创历史新高。
5）上市险企全年利润同比+119%，NBV同比+25%。行业平均EV增速高达80%，为史上最高。

2、2008-2009年：2008保费增长不敌投资低迷，2009调结构、迎春天

1）2008年寿险总保费强劲增长，同比+48%，主要是由于银保渠道扩张速度快。2009年受高基数及调结构影响，增速降至+11%。
2）2008年银保渠道井喷，平安银保渠道保费同比+104%；个险渠道保费增速稳健，行业个险新单同比+20%。2009年，渠道结构、期限结构调整效果显著，太保期缴占比同比提升16ppt至33%。
3）2008、2009年平安代理人增速分别为18%、17%，较2007年有所下降。得益于结构调整，各公司人均产能于2009年大幅提升。
4）受权益市场跌幅惨重影响，2008年投资收益率大幅下降，行业平均仅为1.9%。2009年牛市行情下，行业投资收益率有明显改善，高达6.4%。
5）2008、2009年四家公司归母净利润合计同比-75%、+346%；NBV增速为17%、32%；EV同比-9%、+24%。

3、2010-2013年：熊市下估值大幅回调，行业基本面较差

1）2010-2013年保费增速分别为+29%、-9%、+4%、+8%，较前两阶段显著放缓，主要由于①银行大规模发行银行理财，保险投资收益率低迷，保险产品吸引力下降。②受银保新规影响，银保渠道保费同比出现负增长。
2）2010年银保新规禁止保险公司人员派驻银行网点及2011年银保业务监管指引使得银保收入急转直下，保费收入占比由2010年的50%大幅下滑至42%。
3）代理人增员困难。2010-2013，平安代理人数量每年仅维持个位数增长，但仍好于同业；中国人寿则在2010、2011、2013出现代理人个位数负增长。四年个险新单保费增速分别为+27%、+3%、-8%、6%，在行业历史中处于增速较低阶段。
4）四年险资投资收益率分别为4.8%、3.5%、3.4%、5.0%，受资本市场影响，持续低位徘徊，但2012年投资新政放宽险企投资范围，保险行业另类投资占比于2013年提升6ppt至16%，当年投资收益率明显提升。
5）四年行业利润增速分别为+9%、-21%、-20%、+70%；NBV增速分别为20%、4%、-0.2%、7%；EV增速分别为13%、8%、18%、8%。

4、2014-2015年：市场牛熊切换，保险于牛市中实现显著超额收益

1）2014-2015年保费增速分别为+18%、+25%，增速显著提升。主要由于①降准降息作用下，保险产品相对吸引力提升。②2013年保监会放开传统险2.5%的预定利率上限，传统险占比由13年的10%大幅提升至30%。
2）龙头险企银保占比继续下降，个险占比提升，太保、新华个险占比两年间分别提升23ppt、5ppt至84%、46%。
3）四家上市险企2014年代理人数量合计增速达12%；国寿、平安、太保和新华的个人产能分别增长-5%、6%、8%、16%。2015年受取消「保代考」影响，代理人大幅增长36%至259万人。
4）投资环境改善，权益、另类投资占比提升；两年行业投资收益率分别为6.3%、7.6%。
5）上市险企两年利润增速分别为+34%、+30%；ROE分别为12%、14%，处于历史较高水平；2014NBV同比+15%，其中个险渠道NBV增速近20%；2015NBV同比+38%，两年分别创2011年以来新高。EV分别+33%、22%。

5、2016-2018年10月：价值转型加速，2017为保险股最好的一年

1）2016、2017、2018年前9个月保费增速分别为+37%、+20%、-2%。①2016年，在健康险实现同比+68%的高增速下，保费增速实现2009年以来最高。2015年末开始，保监会对万能险进行严格监管，万能险增速大幅降低。②2018年前9个月保费负增长，主要是由于受134号文影响，年金险吸引力有所下降；且银行理财等收益率上升对保险销售有一定挤出效应。
2）价值转型取得重大突破，个险渠道保费占比、长期期交保费占比、长期保障型保费占比、健康险保费占比于2016-2017均显著提升。
3）2016、2017代理人分别同比+38%、+17%，平安、太保代理人数量与质量增幅均高于同业。2018年上半年四险企代理人合计同比-1%，产能平均同比-18%。
4）2016、2017、以及2018年前三季度行业年化总投资收益率分别为5.7%、5.8%、4.2%。18年受权益市场震荡影响，险企大幅计提减值准备，投资收益率明显下滑。
5）2016、2017、2018前三季度利润增速分别为-15%、+44%、+10%；2016、2017、2018上半年同比+51%、+28%、-12%；EV分别+17%、20%、+9%（较年初）。

Edited by Haitong: the second of the Ten-year Review Series of Insurance stocks: a detailed interpretation of the Ten-year Stock Price trend and fundamentals of Insurance stocks

China's insurance industry has gone through ten years of ups and downs since the three giants of insurance companies, China Life Insurance Company Limited, Ping An Insurance and China Pacific Insurance, landed in A-shares in 2007. Reviewing the course of development over the past ten years, China's insurance industry has gone through five stages: enjoy dividends-> do large-scale-> long-term accumulation is not easy to solve-> return to origin-> gorgeous transformation. To understand history is to better grasp the future. This article is the second in a series of studies on the insurance industry.Fortune Research and selection | Insurance Series 1: three drivers of Insurance Stock Price

1. 2007: the Big three landed in A-shares to share the prosperity of the dividend era.

1) in 1999, the CIRC adjusted the scheduled interest rate of the life insurance policy to no more than 2.5% of the annual compound interest, and the attractiveness of traditional insurance under rate control has greatly declined to customers, which brings good opportunities for the development of new types of insurance, such as dividend insurance, universal insurance, investment insurance and so on. In 2007, in response to rising interest rates, listed insurance companies generally strengthened the sales of investment-linked insurance and universal insurance, and premiums increased by 22% year-on-year, an increase of 10ppt over 2006. Investment insurance accounts for 9%, reaching an all-time high.
2) the proportion of bancassurance continued to increase, exceeding 1x3 at the end of 2007, while the proportion of bancassurance channels was only 17% in 2003. The new business of future delivery is more than 50% higher than that of the same period last year, with a significant increase.
3) the growth rate of industry agents has increased; the production capacity of Ping An Insurance agents far exceeds that of their peers, and the growth rate of agents is as high as 47%.
4) affected by the strong cyclical characteristics of the capital market, the rate of return on investment in the industry soared to 12%, a record high.
5) the full-year profit of listed insurance companies is + 119% and + 25% compared with the same period last year. The industry's average EV growth rate is as high as 80%, the highest in history.

2. 2008-2009: 2008 premium growth is inferior to low investment, and 2009 structural adjustment to welcome spring.

1) the total premium of life insurance increased strongly in 2008, which was + 48% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid expansion of bancassurance channels. Affected by the high base and structural adjustment, the growth rate slowed to + 11% in 2009.
2) in 2008, bancassurance channel blowout, Ping an bancassurance channel premium year-on-year + 104%; individual insurance channel premium growth rate steady, industry individual insurance new policy + 20% year-on-year. In 2009, the channel structure and term structure were adjusted significantly, and the proportion of Taibao contributions increased by 16ppt to 33% compared with the same period last year.
3) the growth rates of Ping an agents in 2008 and 2009 were 18% and 17% respectively, which was lower than that in 2007. Thanks to structural adjustment, the per capita production capacity of companies increased significantly in 2009.
4) affected by the severe decline in the equity market, the rate of return on investment dropped sharply in 2008, with the industry average of only 1.9%. During the bull market in 2009, the rate of return on investment in the industry improved significantly, as high as 6.4%.
5) in 2008 and 2009, the total net profit of the four companies was-75% and + 346% respectively. The growth rate of NBV was 17%, 32% and + 24% respectively.

3. 2010-2013: a sharp correction in valuation in a bear market and poor fundamentals of the industry

1) the growth rates of premiums from 2010 to 2013 were + 29%,-9%, + 4% and + 8% respectively, which was significantly slower than that in the previous two stages, mainly due to the large-scale issuance of bank financing by ① Bank, the low rate of return on insurance investment and the decline in the attractiveness of insurance products. ② affected by the new bancassurance regulations, bancassurance channel premiums showed negative growth compared with the same period last year.
2) the new bancassurance regulations in 2010 prohibit insurance companies from sending personnel to bank outlets and the 2011 bancassurance business regulatory guidelines have led to a sharp decline in bancassurance income, with the share of premium income falling sharply from 50% in 2010 to 42%.
3) it is difficult to increase the number of agents. From 2010 to 2013, the number of Ping an agents only maintained single-digit growth every year, but it was still better than that of the same industry, while China Life Insurance Company Limited showed negative single-digit growth in 2010, 2011 and 2013. The growth rates of new insurance premiums in four years are + 27%, + 3%,-8% and 6% respectively, which is at a relatively low growth stage in the history of the industry.
4) the rate of return on four-year insurance investment is 4.8%, 3.5%, 3.4% and 5.0% respectively, hovering at a low level due to the influence of the capital market, but in 2012, the new investment policy relaxed the investment scope of insurance enterprises, and the proportion of alternative investment in the insurance industry increased to 16% in 2013, and the rate of return on investment increased significantly that year.
5) the growth rates of industry profits in the past four years are + 9%,-21%,-20% and + 70% respectively. The growth rates of NBV are 20%, 4%,-0.2% and 7%, respectively. The growth rates of EV are 13%, 8%, 18% and 8% respectively.

4. 2014-2015: the bull and bear market is switched, and insurance achieves significant excess returns in the bull market.

1) the growth rate of insurance premiums from 2014 to 2015 was + 18% and + 25% respectively, representing a significant increase. Mainly due to the reduction of ① reserve requirements and interest rates, the relative attractiveness of insurance products increased. In 2013, the ② Insurance Regulatory Commission lifted the target interest rate ceiling of 2.5 per cent for traditional insurance, and the proportion of traditional insurance rose sharply to 30 per cent from 10 per cent in 13 years.
2) the proportion of bancassurance, the leading insurance company, continued to decline, while the proportion of individual insurance increased. In the past two years, the proportion of PICC and Xinhua increased by 23ppt and 5ppt to 84% and 46%, respectively.
3) the total number of agents of the four listed insurance companies grew by 12% in 2014; the personal production capacity of Guoshou, Ping an, Taibao and Xinhua increased by-5%, 6%, 8% and 16%, respectively. Affected by the cancellation of the "insurance test" in 2015, the number of agents increased sharply by 36 per cent to 2.59 million.
4) the investment environment has improved, the proportion of equity and alternative investment has increased, and the rate of return on industry investment in the past two years is 6.3% and 7.6%, respectively.
5) the profit growth rates of listed insurance companies in two years are + 34% and + 30%, respectively, which are 12% and 14% respectively, which is at a historically high level; 2014NBV is + 15% year-on-year, of which the NBV growth rate of an insurance channel is nearly 20% + 38% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2011. EV is + 33% and 22% respectively.

5. October 2016-2018: the value transformation is accelerating, and 2017 is the best year for insurance stocks.

1) the growth rates of premiums in 2016, 2017 and the first nine months of 2018 were + 37%, + 20% and-2% respectively. With health insurance growing at a high rate of + 68 per cent year-on-year in 2016, ① premiums grew at their fastest pace since 2009. Since the end of 2015, the CIRC has carried out strict supervision on universal insurance, and the growth rate of universal insurance has slowed down significantly. The negative growth of ② premiums in the first nine months of 2018 is mainly due to the decline in the attractiveness of annual gold insurance due to the influence of Article 134. and the rise in yields such as bank financial management has a crowding-out effect on insurance sales.
2) significant breakthroughs have been made in value transformation, with a significant increase in the proportion of premiums in individual insurance channels, long-term premiums, long-term insurance premiums and health insurance premiums in 2016-2017.
3) 2016 and 2017 agents are + 38% and + 17% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the increase in the number and quality of Ping an and Taibao agents is higher than that of the same industry. In the first half of 2018, the four insurance agents totaled-1% year-on-year, and the average production capacity was-18% year-on-year.
4) the annualized total investment returns of the industry in 2016, 2017 and the first three quarters of 2018 were 5.7%, 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Affected by the concussion of the equity market in the past 18 years, insurance companies have made substantial provision for impairment, and the rate of return on investment has declined significantly.
5) the profit growth rates in the first three quarters of 2016, 2017 and 2018 were-15%, + 44%, + 10%, + 51%, + 28% and-12% respectively (compared with the beginning of the year).

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风口行业 | 保险系列二：中国险企的五个发展历程

Frontier Industry | Insurance Series 2: The Five Development Processes of Chinese Insurers

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