Event: the company recently released its semi-annual report for 2022. H1 realized revenue of 1.039 billion yuan (+ 46.93%), net profit of 302 million yuan (+ 84.97%) and net profit of 302 million yuan (+ 94.56%) after deducting non-return. Q2 achieved a revenue of 592 million yuan (+ 69.05%) in a single quarter and a net profit of 191 million yuan (+ 140.40%). Benefiting from the rising price of caffeine products, the company's Q2 performance is outstanding.
The rise in the price of caffeine products is the main reason for Q2's outstanding performance. In 2022, H1, the company's caffeine business achieved revenue of 830 million yuan (+ 89.39%), gross profit margin of 40.76% (+ 3.90pct), revenue of 180 million yuan (- 25.94%) for health food products, and gross profit margin of 80.38% (- 2.66pct). Caffeine products contribute a major increase in the company's performance. The sales volume of H1 caffeine products was 7005.94 tons (+ 12.80%), and the average sales price was 118447.7 yuan / ton, compared with 70549.03 yuan / ton in the same period last year, an increase of 68%. In terms of cost, the cost per ton of 2022H1 is 70168.12 yuan / ton, compared with 44545.47 yuan / ton in the same period last year, an increase of 58%. The increase in the average sales price of caffeine products is greater than the increase in cost, and the improvement of profitability is the main factor of performance growth.
The price of caffeine products remains high and the full-year performance is expected to be bright. According to wind data, the average export unit price of caffeine and its salt has risen sharply since the end of 2021, from 9-10 US dollars / kg to 16-17 US dollars / kg, and the average export price of caffeine and its salt remained high until July 2022. From the point of view of the unit price of caffeine, the price jumped from about 80 yuan / kg at the end of 2021 to 235 yuan / kg, and remained at 235 yuan / kg as of July 2022. The company's caffeine products adopt a long-term and short-term pricing model, due to the influence of the pricing structure, 2022Q1 caffeine prices have risen significantly, the performance is not obvious, mainly because of the order structure, a larger proportion of orders are still implementing lower prices. However, the average sales price of H1 is close to the average export price, indicating that the company's Q2 sales average price has increased significantly. Q3-Q4 is expected to maintain the Q2 sales price system with bright results for the whole year.
The acquisition of stone medicine Shengxue, to increase the size of the big health business. The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Shiyao Shengxue through fixed increase. Shiyao Shengxue is one of the main manufacturers of third-party acarbose raw materials in China, and it is also an important supplier of anhydrous glucose. After the completion of the technical transformation, Shiyaoshengxue is expected to become the largest third-party acarbose API manufacturer in China. With the expansion of the share of downstream reagent enterprises, the company's share of APIs will expand accordingly. According to the performance commitment, after the successful acquisition, the performance commitment to deduct non-net profit from 2022 to 2024 is not less than 81 million yuan, 91 million yuan and 102 million yuan respectively. As a platform for CSPC Pharmaceutical's layout in the field of health, the company is expected to undertake CSPC Pharmaceutical's vitamin APIs, traditional Chinese medicine and other major health-related plates in the future, and the extension is still expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: without considering the extension factors, it is estimated that in 2022-2024, the revenue will be 1.958 million yuan, 20.37 billion yuan, 2.17 billion yuan, and the return net profit will be 674 million yuan. 689 million yuan, taking into account the persistence of caffeine prices and performance elasticity in 2022, maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: caffeine prices have fallen sharply; health food sales have fallen short of expectations; stone medicine Sheng Xue integration is not as expected; and the prices of raw materials such as cyanoacetic acid continue to rise.
