Event
The company publishes its semi-annual report 2022
On August 28, the company released its semi-annual report of 2022, achieving: 1) operating income of 630 million yuan, down 69.45% from the same period last year; 2) net profit of 12 million per share, down 98.69% from the same period last year; 3) deducting non-return net profit of-57 million, down 106.31% of earnings per share.
Brief comment
The demand for COVID-19 vaccine declined, and the MCV series became a new driving force for performance growth. 22Q2 achieved operating income of 130 million yuan, down 91.82% from the same period last year; net profit from home was-109 million, down 111.48% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-home was-139 million, down 115.12% from the same period last year. The decline in company revenue in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decrease in vaccine demand caused by the slowdown in the global COVID-19 vaccine coverage rate, and the price drop of about 100 million yuan in COVID-19 vaccine-related inventory, which showed signs of impairment.
A number of products of the company were commercialized in the first half of the year. Among them, COVID-19 vaccine "Keweisha"
It was approved for domestic booster immunization in February 2022 and included in the Emergency use list (EUL) by WHO in May, becoming China's first innovative technological route to obtain WHO EUL, COVID-19 vaccine, which is conducive to the further expansion of overseas markets. In the first half of the year, MCV2 has completed market access for nearly 20 provinces and cities in China, and MCV4 was approved and issued for the first time in June 2022. It is expected that in the second half of the year, as the epidemic situation of COVID-19 tends to alleviate, the income brought by COVID-19 vaccine gradually decreases, and MCV2 and MCV4 begin to release, driving the performance growth of the company's non-COVID-19 vaccine products.
It has advanced technology platform and rich pipeline of products under development. Relying on the rich experience and technical knowledge of the vaccine industry at home and abroad by the senior management team, and through continuous development, the company has constructed five technology platforms: viral vector vaccine technology, synthetic vaccine technology, protein structure design and VLP assembly technology, mRNA technology, preparation and drug delivery technology, covering the main advanced technologies in vaccine research and development, laying a solid foundation for the company's vaccine research and development. Demonstrate the company's outstanding vaccine research and development strength. At present, the company's inhaled Ad5-nCoV has entered the clinical phase Ⅲ trial, clinical trials show that it has a high degree of immunogenicity and good long-term safety as a sequential enhanced vaccine. The mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was approved in April 2022 and is now in the stage of clinical Ⅱ.
The commercial operation system is complete, and the mRNA industrialization base is put into construction. The company has established a well-established commercial operation center, which is responsible for the domestic and foreign market strategy, marketing activity planning and implementation of vaccine products, which will further improve the revenue brought to the company by MCV products. Since 2018, the company began to layout mRNA synthesis and delivery technology, and gradually established a mRNA technology platform. In the first half of the year, the company is building a mRNA industrialization base in Shanghai Lingang, with a planned production capacity of 100 million agents in the first phase.
Sales and management expenses increased significantly, while R & D expenses decreased. 22H1 has a gross profit of 316 million (- 77.99%) and a gross profit of 50.21% (- 19.46pp), mainly due to the reduced demand for COVID-19 vaccine and the adjustment of product prices. The sales cost of 22H1 Company is 89 million yuan (+ 157.07%), and the sales expense rate is 14.12% (+ 12.44pp), which is mainly due to the increase of sales staff and the increase of marketing promotion for the continuous promotion of vaccine products. The management fee is 137 million yuan (60.75%), and the management expense rate is 21.71% (+ 17.59pp), which is mainly due to the continuous increase in the number of managers and various operating expenses. The R & D cost is 324 million yuan (- 41.23%), and the R & D expense rate is 21.71% (+ 24.70pp), which is mainly due to the commercialization of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 and the promotion of product research and development. The financial expense rate is-19.57% (- 17.90pp), which is mainly due to the increase in exchange gains and losses. The net cash flow of 22H1's operating activities is-1.214 billion, which is mainly due to the decrease in cash flow from the main business. Other financial indicators are basically normal.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Without considering COVID-19 's vaccine profit forecast, we expect the company's operating income to be 328 million yuan, 655 million yuan and 1.025 billion yuan respectively in 2022-2024, and the net profit to return to the mother is-774 million yuan,-570 million yuan and-289 million yuan respectively, down 140.4%, 26.3% and 49.3% respectively compared with the same period last year, and EPS is-3.13,2.30,1.17yuan per share respectively. The corresponding PE are-78.1X,-106.0X and-209.0X, respectively. Comprehensively consider the value of the company's R & D pipeline and follow-up newly developed vaccine, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk analysis.
The speed of batch issuance is not as fast as expected; the risk of product price fluctuation; the risk of product safety; the listing progress of new varieties is lower than expected.
