Events:
The company released its semi-annual report for 2022: revenue in the first half of the year was 2.386 billion, up 7.14% from the same period last year; its net profit was 155 million, compared with a loss of 136 million yuan in the same period last year. 2022Q2's revenue was 1.163 billion yuan, an increase of 8.19% over the same period last year, while its net profit was 45 million yuan, an increase of 125% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The rising trend of salmon continued and the gross profit of subsidiaries improved significantly.
The price of salmon has shown an upward trend since 2022, A.S. The subsidiary's first-half sales price of Atlantic salmon was US $7.05 / KG, up 47 per cent from the same period last year. Of this total, the selling price of Q2 was about $8.1 per KG, up 40 per cent from a year earlier. In the first half of the year, the company's salmon harvest was 38000 tons and sales volume was 36000 tons; Q2 salmon harvest was 18000 tons, which was sold to the public sales department by 1.5%. Eight thousand tons to the mother. Net benefit from high fish prices, run 155 million, a substantial increase of 291 million yuan over the same period last year, to achieve a turnaround from losses to profits. Among them, A.S. The gross profit margin of the subsidiary reached 19.9%, a substantial increase in 20.92pct compared with the same period last year. Due to the significant increase in fish prices, the fair value of consumable biological assets increased by 57.1% to 208 million yuan.
Short-term salmon price. Or pullback, the long-term tight balance of the industry continued as of Aug. 22, Chilean Trim-D sold to the United States at $5.55-$5.95 / lb, about $2.50 / lb from the Q2 price high. Q3 is the off-season of traditional salmon consumption, while Q4 is affected by seasonal consumption such as Christmas, and salmon consumption will enter the peak season. It is expected that the price of Q3 salmon may weaken and the price of Q4 salmon will return to the rising channel. Due to the decline in the number of seedlings in 2022, poor seawater growth conditions and early fishing at the end of last year, the global supply of Atlantic salmon fell by about 6% in the first half of 2022 compared with the same period last year. Kontali predicts that the compound growth rate on the supply side will be 4% from 2021 to 2026, and the growth rate of salmon supply in 2022 will be less than-1%, much lower than the balanced growth rate of 8.8%. The tight balance between supply and demand in the industry will continue.
Earnings forecasts, valuations and ratings.
Affected by the rebound in the salmon industry, the company's profit forecast has been raised. We expect the values from 2022 to 2024 to be 57 years. 21 cm / 6 Division 9.4 Battalion 5 Revenue / 60.39 respectively
8.451 billion yuan), 31.36%, 21.59%, 21.87%; 3.09, 5.25 / 808 million yuan, respectively; (the original forecast is 2.43, 4.08 / 707 million yuan, respectively), and 207.12% / 69.75, 53.83%, respectively, from the same period last year. With reference to the 23-year average valuation of the comparable company, the target price is maintained at 34.9 yuan and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk hint
Natural disaster risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; food safety risk