Events. According to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 22H1 achieved revenue of 1.534 billion yuan (year-on-year-6.78%), net profit of 109 million yuan (year-on-year-28.35%), Q2 revenue of 874 million yuan (year-on-year-7.70%, month-on-month + 32.18%), and net profit of 69 million yuan (year-on-year-35.15%, month-on-month + 69.71%).
PCB business is affected by weak consumer electronics demand and other factors, profitability is expected to repair in the second half of the year.
Revenue from 22H1's PCB business and customized electronic devices business fell 4.04% and 2.81% respectively compared with the same period last year.
We believe that the decline in revenue from the company's PCB business is mainly affected by the weak demand in the consumer electronics market caused by factors such as the epidemic. Revenue from the smart terminal business of 22H1 fell 37% from the same period last year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the profitability of the company's PCB business is expected to be repaired due to the fall in commodity prices, the strong demand for new energy, the repair of consumer market demand and the increase of 40,000 square meters / month production capacity of Jiangsu Phase II Smart Factory in August.
The proportion of new energy / automotive electronics PCB has increased, and the integrated special board of strong and weak electricity and electronic assembly have developed in coordination.
22H1 New Energy / Automotive Electronics PCB achieved steady growth, and 22H1 achieved revenue of 359 million yuan (+ 27% compared with the same period last year), accounting for 33% of PCB business revenue, and improved 8pcts over the same period last year. The company's patented products, strong and weak electricity integration PCB, help the modularization of the three power system, and realize assembly automation and modularization. It has docked and cooperated with a number of new car manufacturing customers. Electronic assembly business design capabilities include commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles battery PACK, BDU, PDU, OBC, VCU, etc., we believe that the company coordinated layout of strong and weak electricity integration special board and electronic assembly business. Help to improve the value of bicycles and the ability of one-stop service.
The volume of AMB ceramic liner is just around the corner. AMB ceramic substrate preferentially uses silicon nitride ceramic substrate as the substrate, which is the first choice for the third generation semiconductor power device chip substrate, and gradually replaces DBC ceramic substrate in rail transit, industrial and vehicle gauge IGBT modules with high thermal conductivity, high reliability and high power requirements.
The company's existing AMB ceramic liner production capacity of 80,000 sheets / month, is expected to reach 150,000-200,000 sheets / month capacity scale in 2023, has been in the aviation system, CRRC system, Zhenhua technology, Guodian Nanrui, BYD Semiconductor and other customers to carry out model verification and mass production. We believe that with the expansion of the production capacity of the company's AMB ceramic liner and the promotion of customer verification, the company's AMB ceramic liner is expected to expand quickly.
Add the IC carrier board, and the test line is officially in operation. With the commissioning of Jiangsu Phase II Intelligent Plant, the company's first package carrier test line mainly used in the storage field has officially entered the operation stage, with a planned capacity of 5000 square meters per month. Proofing and trial production has been carried out for Changxin Storage, Peiton, iFLYTEK, Konka Xinyun and other customers. In addition, the company signed an agreement with the Management Committee of Hefei Economic and technological Development Zone, planning to jointly invest about 6 billion yuan with relevant industrial funds to build Bomin IC package carrier board industrial base project, mainly engaged in the production of high-end high-density package carrier board products, applications include memory chips, MEMS chips, high-speed communications market and Mini LED.
Profit forecast. We estimate that the operating income of the company will be 4.045 billion yuan / 5.254 billion yuan / 6.617 billion yuan in 2022-2024, and the net profit of homing in 2022-2024 will be 297x463,653 million yuan respectively, corresponding to an EPS of 0.58 pound 0.91 pound 1.28 yuan per share. Considering the valuation level of the comparable company and the growth of the company's AMB liner, the 23-year PE valuation range of 20-25x is given. Corresponding to the reasonable value range of 18.20-22.75 yuan, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. The risk of capacity expansion falling short of expectations; the risk of downstream demand fluctuations