Modern Animal Husbandry (1117.HK): Profit quality is high despite short-term cost pressure

華西證券 · Aug 26, 2022 00:00 · Researches

事件描述

上半年公司实现收入56.3 亿元，同比+77%。毛利16.5 亿元，同比+40%。经调整净利（剔除外汇及衍生工具损益）7.3 亿元，同比+49%。归母净利5.1 亿元，同比+2.2%。

分析判断:

量增使收入大幅增长

上半年公司原料奶业务收入48.6 亿元，同比+52.8%。其中销量114 万吨，同比+56.7%。因去年7 月收购并表中元牧业、11 月底收购并表富源牧业，以及原有牛群自繁增长，公司乳牛头数扩增至38.3 万头，同比+51.9%。其中成乳牛19.6 万头、占比51.3%，年化单产12.3 吨、同比+10.8%，单产较去年同期提升显著。

上半年对外出售价格4.28 元/kg，同比-2.5%。奶价同比下降更多是由并购牧场引起的结构变化导致，除此之外同比仅微降。公司奶价变化幅度小于市场原奶售价变化幅度。奶价下降与上半年疫情引起的乳制品消费疲软有关，下半年消费环境改善情况下我们判断奶价将保持平稳。

饲料成本上涨使毛利率承压

上半年原料奶业务毛利率32.2%，同比-5pcts，因奶价下降同时饲养成本上升。上半年公斤奶成本2.9 元/kg、同比+5.1%，其中公斤奶饲料成本2.26 元/kg、同比+7.9%。上半年豆粕、苜蓿草、棉籽等大宗原材料价格同比大幅上涨，使公司大宗饲料综合采购价格同比+10.9%，由于单产的提升，对公斤奶饲料成本有所稀释。面临同样饲料价格上涨压力，公司成本管控能力优于行业。下半年成本端压力仍需观察大宗原材料价格走势。

公司其他费用率保持稳定，奶牛公允价值确认有所减少，其他收益亏损2.25 亿元主要因人民币兑美元汇率变动导致美元债产生非现金损益。最终实现归母净利润5 亿元、净利率9%，现金净流入12.8 亿元，整体看保持了较高的获利质量。

投资建议

现代牧业上半年规模快速扩张，利润端因饲料成本上涨有所承压，但仍明显好于行业水平。由于上半年规模和单产提升好于我们预期，调升2022-24 年收入预测112/119/131 亿元至118/128/138 亿元，考虑奶牛公允价值变动和美元债公允价值变动，下调2022-24 年EPS 预测0.15/0.18/0.22 元至0.11/0.17/0.2 元。

2022/8/26 收盘价HKD 1.05 元对应P/E 分别为8.4/5.4/4.6 倍（港币兑人民币汇率0.87），估值较低，重申买入评级。

风险提示

原奶价格快速下降，饲料价格大幅上涨，食品安全问题

Event description

In the first half of the year, the company achieved 5.63 billion yuan in revenue, + 77% compared with the same period last year. Gross profit is 1.65 billion yuan, + 40% compared with the same period last year. Adjusted net profit (excluding gains and losses on foreign exchange and derivatives) was 730 million yuan, + 49% year-on-year. The net profit of returning to the mother was 510 million yuan, which was + 2.2% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis and judgment:

The increase in volume led to a substantial increase in income.

In the first half of the year, the company's raw milk business income was 4.86 billion yuan, + 52.8% compared with the same period last year. Of which 1.14 million tons were sold, + 56.7% compared with the same period last year. Due to the acquisition of Zhongyuan Animal Husbandry in July last year, Fuyuan Animal Husbandry at the end of November, and the growth of the original herd, the number of dairy cows in the company expanded to 383000, a year-on-year increase of + 51.9%. Among them, 196000 were adult cows, accounting for 51.3%, with an annual yield of 12.3 tons, + 10.8% compared with the same period last year, which increased significantly over the same period last year.

The foreign sale price in the first half of the year was 4.28 yuan / kg, which was-2.5% higher than that of the same period last year. The year-on-year decline in milk prices is more due to structural changes caused by mergers and acquisitions of pastures, but only slightly lower than the same period last year. The change range of the company's milk price is less than that of the market raw milk price. The decline in milk prices is related to the weak consumption of dairy products caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year, and we judge that milk prices will remain stable when the consumption environment improves in the second half of the year.

Rising feed costs put pressure on gross profit margin

In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of raw milk business was 32.2%, year-on-year-5pcts, due to the decline in milk prices and the rise in feeding costs. In the first half of the year, the cost of kilogram milk was 2.90 yuan / kg, + 5.1% compared with the same period last year, of which the feed cost of kilogram milk was 2.26 yuan / kg, + 7.9% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the prices of soybean meal, alfalfa, cottonseed and other raw materials rose sharply compared with the same period last year, making the company's comprehensive purchase price of bulk feed + 10.9% year-on-year. Due to the increase in per unit yield, the cost of kilogram milk feed was diluted. Facing the same upward pressure of feed prices, the company's cost control ability is better than that of the industry. The cost side pressure still needs to observe the price trend of bulk raw materials in the second half of the year.

The rate of other expenses of the company remained stable, the fair value of dairy cows decreased, and the loss of other income of 225 million yuan was mainly due to the non-cash profit and loss of US dollar debt caused by the change in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. Finally achieved a net profit of 500 million yuan, a net interest rate of 9%, and a net cash inflow of 1.28 billion yuan, maintaining a high profit quality as a whole.

Investment suggestion

The scale of modern animal husbandry expanded rapidly in the first half of the year, and the profit end was under pressure due to the rise in feed costs, but it was still significantly better than the industry level. Due to the better-than-expected increase in scale and per unit yield in the first half of the year, the revenue forecast for 2022-24 will be raised from 112Universe 119,000,000 yuan to 118,8000,000 pound, taking into account changes in the fair value of dairy cows and US dollar debt. The EPS forecast for 2022-24 will be lowered by 0.15x0.18exp 0.22 to 0.11xlb 0.170.2.

On 2022-8-26, the closing price of HKD 1.05 corresponds to 4.6x of 8.4pm (HKD / RMB0.87), respectively, and the valuation is relatively low.

Risk hint

The price of raw milk is falling rapidly, the price of feed is rising sharply, and food safety is a problem.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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现代牧业(1117.HK)：虽短期成本承压 但获利质量较高

Modern Animal Husbandry (1117.HK): Profit quality is high despite short-term cost pressure

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

现代牧业(1117.HK)：虽短期成本承压但获利质量较高