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美联储“鹰声”只是开始!9月美股将迎接更多政策考验

The "eagle" of the Federal Reserve is just the beginning! Us stocks will face more policy tests in September

Wind ·  Aug 29, 2022 08:04

The latest non-farm payrolls report was the main focus of the U. S. stock market this week as investors entered September.

The Labor Department will release August employment data at 08:30 Beijing time on Friday, which is expected to show another strong month for the U. S. job market. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 300000 in August.

The data could play a key role in the Fed's September interest rate meeting. Investors will keep a close eye on the employment data after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a tough speech at the Jackson Hole seminar on Friday that he was willing to accept a weaker labour market to ease inflation.

"if the Fed finds a conflict between the two tasks of inflation and employment in its efforts to slow inflation, the Fed chairman puts price stability above maximum employment," Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of the Thornburg Investment Management's investment division, said in a report on Friday. "

Powell's comments sent the market tumbling, with all three major indexes closing at four-week lows on Friday. The Nasdaq index fell 3.94% and the s & p 500 fell 3.37%, both of which recorded their biggest one-day losses since June 13. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1000 points, or about 3 per cent, on Friday.

Investors are increasing their bets on the market downturn, a sign of weakening sentiment, which analysts say could herald a return to the volatile trading of the first half of 2022.

In the past few months, net short positions in S & P 500 futures have increased to levels not seen in two years. This means that traders have increased their bets on a fall in the index, or at least hedged that risk. At the same time, the recent decline in technology stocks suggests that the strong summer rally is fading.

Many traders and portfolio managers are debating whether the rebound in stocks from 2022 lows in mid-June marks the start of a new bull market or just a temporary rebound. The discussion was reignited by the Fed chairman's hawkish speech on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling more than 1000 points in a single day.

"there is likely to be some softening in the job market," Powell said in a speech on Friday. While rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and a weak job market will depress inflation, they will also cause some pain for households and businesses. This is the unfortunate price of reducing inflation, but failure to restore price stability will mean more pain. "

Until Friday, some market participants had expected the Fed to adjust its monetary tightening program, but Powell and other officials did not believe that interest rate increases were likely to be reduced this year.

Inflation has shown signs of abating, but it is still well above the Fed's 2 per cent target. The consumer price index (CPI) fell slightly last month, with overall personal consumption spending falling 0.1 per cent from June to July, mainly driven by a 4.8 per cent drop in energy prices, according to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Overall personal consumption spending rose 6.3 per cent in July from a year earlier.

Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.1 per cent in July from a month earlier and 4.6 per cent from a year earlier, the slowest annual growth since October 2021.

However, Mr Powell said another "exceptionally large" rate hike was likely in September, after raising rates by 75 basis points in June and July. "restoring price stability may require a restrictive policy stance for some time," Powell said. The historical record is a strong warning against premature easing. "

As for other job market data, ADP will republish its private employment report on Wednesday, using a new calculation method. Economists expect private sector job creation to reach 300000 in August.

In terms of earnings data, the earnings season for US stocks is almost over, but there are still some results that may affect the market to be announced. Traders will receive$Best Buy (BBY.US)$$HP Inc (HPQ.US)$$Big Lots (BIG.US)$$Chewy (CHWY.US)$$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Including the data of well-known enterprises.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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