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晨化股份(300610):上半年盈利符合预期 聚醚胺下半年景气业绩提升可期

Chenhua (300610): first-half earnings are in line with expectations of polyetheramine in the second half of the year

中信建投證券 ·  Aug 27, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Event

The company released its 22-year semi-annual report: 22H1 achieved revenue of 600 million yuan,-5.4% compared with the same period last year:

Realize the net profit of 90 million yuan, + 3.6% compared with the same period last year: realize the net profit of 80 million yuan after deducting non-return, + 6.85% compared with the same period last year: the revenue corresponding to Q2 is 320 million, compared with Q1: 18.1%:

The net profit of returning to the mother is 49 million, the month-on-month ratio is 18.4%: the net profit of deducting non-return is 44 million, and the month-on-month ratio is 12.5%.

Brief comment

Q2 performance maintained special growth month-on-month, with steady profit growth in the first half of the year.

The company's 22H1 realized revenue of 600 million yuan,-5.4% compared with the same period last year: realized net profit of 90 million yuan, + 3.6% compared with the same period last year; realized net profit of 80 million yuan, + 6.9% over the same period last year:

Corresponding to Q2, the revenue is 320 million, which is basically the same as the same period last year, with a month-on-month comparison of 18.1%. The net profit is 49 million, + 33.2% and 18.4%, respectively. The net profit after deducting non-return is 44 million, + 36.7% and 12.5%, respectively. Under the influence of the epidemic situation and production line debugging in the first half of the year, the company maintained month-on-month growth under steady operation, mainly due to the increase in surfactant revenue and gross profit, achieving revenue of 440 million yuan, + 16.4% over the same period last year. Gross profit reached 32.5%, + 4.5% compared with the same period last year: the decline in operating revenue was mainly due to the decline in revenue from flame retardants and silicone rubber. They are 99 million yuan, 55 million yuan,-47.9% and-8.85% respectively compared with the same period last year. In terms of expenses, sales expenses are-1.4% year-on-year, management expenses are + 7.8% year-on-year, and financial expenses are-295.2%. This is mainly due to the increase in exchange earnings: 25 million yuan in R & D expenses, + 9.75% in the same period last year.

Polyetheramine is expected to increase both in volume and profit in the second half of the year, and the product boom and performance contribution are expected to improve.

The company's main product polyetheramine products were affected by equipment commissioning in the first half of the year, production capacity was not fully released, while the epidemic affected part of the terminal demand. Since June, the company has fully resumed production of 28000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate has remained high. The production capacity of 3000 tons in the intermittent method has been steadily advanced, and the production and sales volume will be significantly improved in the second half of the year. In addition, due to the expansion of production in the industry, the average price of epoxy propane, the main raw material of polyetheramine, was 11000 yuan in the first half of this year, which dropped sharply compared with the average price of 16700 yuan in 21 years, and further dropped to 9000 yuan since July. The decline in the price of raw materials will further thicken the profit per ton of polyetheramine. At the same time, the bidding volume of wind power has increased this year compared with the same period last year, and with the gradual delivery of tender orders, the growth in the field of wind power blades is expected to significantly boost the demand for polyetheramine, thereby raising the price of products. Under the double improvement of profit and production and marketing, the performance contribution of the company's polyetheramine products is expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year.

Actively layout production capacity construction to maintain the core competitiveness of polyetheramine products

At present, the company has a production capacity of 31000 tons, ranking in the forefront of domestic enterprises. In terms of capacity layout, in September 2021, Huaian Chenghua, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, signed an agreement with the Zhunan Investment Promotion Bureau to invest about 600 million yuan in Jiangsu Huaian Industrial Park to build a project with an annual production capacity of 40, 000 tons of polyether amine and 42000 tons of polyether. On July 7, 2022, 40, 000 tons of polyetheramine project won the record certificate of investment project in Jiangsu Province. The polyetheramine project is the engineering scale-up and further optimization of the current 10,000-ton plant. Help to save labor costs, energy costs to produce economies of scale and reduce investment costs, and further enhance the core competitiveness of the company.

Profit forecast and valuation: the net profit of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is expected to be 2.39,3.56 and 421 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 16.1,10.9,9.2 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: project production is not as expected, downstream demand is not as expected, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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