The high prosperity of trichlorosilicon drives the company's H1 performance to grow sharply and maintain its "buy" rating.
On August 25, the company released its 2022 half-year report, which showed that H1 Company achieved operating income of 952 million yuan, + 81.29% year-on-year, and net profit of 238 million yuan, + 287.99% compared with the same period last year. 2022 trichlorosilane, the intermediate raw material of functional silane products of H1 company, has a high bearing, which provides a strong support for the high price of silane products; at the same time, thanks to the steady growth of downstream demand, the company's silane products have achieved a simultaneous increase in volume and price. We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 5.21,8.27,1.169 billion yuan, and the EPS is 1.19,1.90,2.68 yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the PE of 16.7,10.5,7.4 times from 2022 to 2024. 2022 H2, the intensive production of downstream polysilicon projects may help trichlorosilicon to continue its high demeanor. We are optimistic that the company will maintain a strong cost advantage and excellent profitability and maintain a "buy" rating.
The price difference of Q2 trichlorosilicon is larger than the previous month, and the company's profitability remains strong. Q2 company achieves operating income of 468 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of-3.34%; return to the mother net profit of 118 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of-2.21%. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, we calculated that the price difference of Q2 industrial grade trichlorosilicon is about 15600 yuan / ton, an increase of 55.63% compared with Q1 month-on-month, and that of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is about 217,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 44.15% over Q1. According to the operating data released by the company, we calculate that the average selling price of Q2 company's main products HP669, HP669C, HP1589 and gaseous silica is about 3.56,2.12,4.43 and 29400 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 4.37%,-0.88%,-5.00% and + 14.17%. The company has the advantages of self-circular economy system and the integration of industrial chain. Through continuous optimization of process, production costs have been continuously reduced, and the company's sales gross profit margin and net profit margin have increased from 36.14% and 24.58% of Q1 to 37.21% and 25.14% of Q2, respectively.
The second set of 50, 000-ton trichlorosilicon and its supporting projects of H2 company will be put into production one after another, and the project of continuous expansion of product matrix is under construction. The second set of 50, 000-ton trichlorosilicon plant is expected to be put into trial production in the third quarter. It can produce photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon and sell it to the outside world. The 40,000 tons of new silicon-based materials project is expected to be put into trial production in the third quarter; the 9000 tons of aminosilane and 30,000 tons of special silane projects are expected to be put into trial production in the fourth quarter; and the aerogel project is under rapid progress as planned. We believe that the steady expansion of the company along the industrial chain will promote the continuous expansion of the company's product matrix and steadily grow into a platform-based functional silane supplier.
Risk tips: capacity release is not as expected, product prices have fallen sharply, and downstream demand is flagging.