The performance is in line with expectations, continue to promote the construction of optical base film and lithium diaphragm projects, and maintain the "buy" rating.
On August 25, the company released 2022 semi-annual report, with revenue of 545 million yuan, year-on-year-9.03%, net profit of 81 million yuan, year-on-year-12.18%, corresponding to Q2 revenue of 259 million yuan, year-on-year-18.82%, month-on-month ratio-8.96%. Return to the mother net profit of 45 million yuan, year-on-year-6.93%, month-on-month + 27.74%, solid performance. Taking into account the raw material end disturbance and downstream demand pressure, we downgrade 2022-2023, add 2024 profit forecast, it is estimated that 2022-2024 net profit is 2.32,3.00,383 million yuan (the previous value 3.84,5.45), EPS is 0.81,1.05,1.34 yuan per share (the previous value 1.36,1.93), the current stock price corresponds to PE of 23.1,17.9,14.0 times. In the first half of 2022, shrinking demand in the consumer electronics industry and rising raw material prices dragged down the company's profitability; we believe that the company steadily promoted the construction of optical base membrane and lithium diaphragm projects, confirmed long-term growth and maintained a "buy" rating.
Reflective film revenue decreased year-on-year superimposed raw material price rise, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin decreased year-on-year according to the company announcement, affected by the contraction in demand in the consumer electronics industry, the company's reflective film sales revenue decreased year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in total revenue. Affected by the sharp rise in the price of the main raw material PET, the optical base film gross profit margin declined, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin year-on-year-4.95pcts to 28.28%, net profit rate-0.53pcts to 14.79%.
According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price of 2022H1 polyester chips is 7374.67 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, the average price is 7197.72 yuan / ton since the beginning of July, and 6.65% from the second quarter. We believe that with the decline in raw material costs, coupled with the company actively docking customers to adjust prices, continue to promote Mini LED reflective film, small and medium-sized reflective film, blister reflective film and other applications to improve product shipments, the company's profitability is expected to be repaired step by step.
Continue to promote the construction and market expansion of optical base film and lithium diaphragm projects, and determine long-term growth. In the first half of 2022, the company's "optical grade polyester substrate film project with an annual output of 80,000 tons" has invested a total of 159 million yuan, accounting for 13% of the total investment. at the same time, by constantly improving the key indicators of optical base film, we can increase the proportion of shipments of products such as optical pre-coating film for display. The "annual output of 560 million square meters of lithium-ion battery separator project" has started construction, the project construction is in line with expectations, of which the first production line equipment has been installed to be debugged, and strive to achieve small batch production of 2022Q3. We are optimistic that the company will implement the strategic goal of "ten years and ten films" and determine its long-term growth.
Risk tips: lower-than-expected demand, project construction schedule is not as expected, exchange rate fluctuations and so on.
