Events:
The company reported in 2022 that 2022H1 achieved revenue of 903 million yuan, an increase of 2.39% over the same period last year, net profit of-207 million yuan, a decrease of 128.75%, and non-return net profit of-130 million yuan, a decrease of 132.28% over the same period last year. The company's 2022Q2 revenue was 514 million yuan, down 9.16% from the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 3 million yuan, deducting the non-return net profit of-63 million yuan.
Comments:
The price of raw materials goes up and the gross profit margin goes down. The revenue of 2022H1 digital energy technology and products is 558 million yuan, + 4.67% compared with the same period last year, and the revenue of comprehensive energy services is 345 million yuan,-1.10% year on year. The gross profit margin of digital energy technology and products is 0.45%, year-on-year-10.29pct; the gross profit margin of comprehensive energy services is 10.04%, year-on-year-5.72pct. 2022H1 copper, steel and other raw materials prices are high, lithium battery prices up to 50%, the increase in operating costs led to a downward gross profit margin. As the prices of core commodities fall, the company's gross margin is expected to be repaired.
The fluctuation of fair value affects profits, and the relief of the epidemic promotes a high increase in revenue. The share price of Nanwang Energy, which the company participates in, has a large decline, and the change in fair value reduces the company's current profit. 2022H1 reduced its holdings of 52.78 million shares of Southern Grid Energy to 55.1 million shares by the end of the reporting period, and the impact of future fluctuations in Southern Grid Energy shares on the company's profits will be significantly reduced. The epidemic affected the bidding and construction of new energy projects in the first half of the year. With the relief of the epidemic, project construction is expected to accelerate, and the company's business income is expected to increase.
High-pressure reserve has the advantage of first-mover and has a broad market space. High-voltage cascade storage improves the efficiency and security of large-scale cell combination applications through the innovation of power electronics topology. Compared with the low-voltage large storage, the high-voltage cascade storage saves the transformer, the manufacturing cost is reduced by 10%, the charge and discharge cycle efficiency is increased from 86% to 91%, and the cell utilization is increased by 15%. High-voltage cascade storage has both economy and efficiency, and is expected to become the mainstream route of large reserves in the future. The company currently has the energy storage capacity of 1.2GWh, and this year it will increase the production capacity of 1.5 GWH and 2.7 GWh corresponding to 4 billion output value. The company has obtained a number of hundreds of millions of yuan of large storage orders, large storage accelerated, the company is expected to obtain a good market share.
Profit forecast: the traditional main business profit repair, high-pressure reserves contribute to the performance increment. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is-0.5 / 2.15 / 437 million yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price from 2023 to 2024 is 42 / 21 times. Cover for the first time, give "overweight" rating, give the company 2024E profit 23 times valuation, target price 12.58 yuan.
Risk tips: energy storage is lower than expected, raw material prices continue to rise, and performance is lower than expected.