浦发银行(600000):息差平稳 不良双降

Pudong Development Bank (600000): interest rate spreads are stable and double falling

廣發證券 ·  Aug 27, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Revenue and earnings maintained positive growth compared with the same period last year. The company reported a year-on-year increase in 22H1 homing net profit of 1.1 per cent year-on-year (22Q1 up 3.7 per cent). From the perspective of the disassembly of the main elements of income and expenditure:

(1) on the income side, the overall growth is slow. 22H1 revenue increased by 1.3% year-on-year (22Q1 grew by 1.0% year-on-year), mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai in the second quarter, the superposition company is still in the stage of restructuring and business transformation, the growth of all detailed income is slow, and the net interest income, middle income and other non-interest income of 22H1 increased by 1.5%, 0.1% and 1.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. (2) on the expenditure side, the expense increased slightly, and the cost and income increased by 0.7 pct compared with the same period last year; the drag on the provision increased, and the total impairment loss of 22H1 increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year, of which the loan impairment loss increased by 10.4%.

The spread is stable and is expected to remain in the second half of the year. The company's 22H1 net interest margin is 1.84%, which is higher 1bps than 21A. Compared with comparable peers, interest spreads are more stable, mainly due to: (1) on the asset side, the allocation of interbank assets increased in the first half of the year, and the upward rate of return on interbank assets partially offset the decline in loan prices and share, and the return on assets decreased slightly compared with 21A by 3bps. (2) on the debt side, the proportion of demand deposits decreases, and the deposit cost ratio increases 5bps compared with 21A, which benefits from the decrease of interbank debt cost, and the overall debt cost ratio decreases 5bps compared with 21A. In terms of trend, as the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai recedes, credit will gradually return to normalization in the second half of the year, which will form a certain support for the rate of return on assets, the trend of superimposed debt structure will continue, and interest spreads are expected to remain stable.

The bad continued to decline on a month-on-month basis, and the provision coverage rate returned to more than 150%. The company insists on "controlling the new and reducing the old" at the same time, continues to increase the intensity of bad disposal, and has achieved remarkable results in reducing risks. At the end of 22Q2, the amount of non-performing loans decreased by 510 million yuan month-on-month, and the non-performing loan ratio decreased 2bps, which has achieved a double decline for 10 consecutive quarters; the balance and proportion of concern loans declined; due to the impact of the epidemic, the balance of overdue loans increased periodically in the first half of the year, and the proportion of overdue loans at the end of 22Q2 was 2.15%. Thanks to the increase in loan impairment, the coverage rate of 22Q2 final provisions returned to more than 150%, and the risk offset ability was enhanced.

Profit forecast and investment advice: the company insists on taking high-quality development as the main line, strengthening transformation, structural adjustment, pressure reduction risk, and overall sound management. Strengthen the leadership of the head office of public business, promote structural transformation and optimization, and achieve remarkable results in the optimization of customer business model; retail business focuses on improving online, differentiated and ecological service capabilities, and promotes the overall scale of retail to a higher level; at the same time, continue to increase risk resolution and disposal efforts, asset quality to maintain a good trend. It is estimated that the growth rate of homing net profit of the company in 22x23 is 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively, and the BVPS is 1.64 and 21.79 yuan per share, respectively. The current share price of A shares corresponds to 22Universe, PE is 4.4X and 4.3X, respectively, PB is 0.35X/0.33X. Considering the valuation center and fundamentals of PB (LF) in the past two years, the valuation of PB for 22 years is given.

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