The epidemic affected traffic flow, and 22Q2's homing net profit decreased by 23.8% compared with the same period last year. Due to the impact of local epidemic on traffic flow and road transport business, the company's 22H1 realized operating income of 2.057 billion yuan, down 17.3% from the same period last year. In addition, the investment income of 22H1 fell 5.6% to 162 million yuan compared with the same period last year. In the end, the 22H1 net profit of the company was 774 million yuan, down 8.8% from the same period last year, while the non-parent net profit was 743 million yuan, down 11.8% from the same period last year. Of this total, the net profit of 22Q2 was 343 million yuan, down 23.8% from the same period last year, while the non-return net profit was 339 million yuan, down 24.2% from the same period last year.
After the reconstruction and expansion of the southern section of Fokai, the toll period was extended to superimpose the Guanghui Expressway to enhance the operating soundness of the company's holding Guangfo Expressway. Tolls have been suspended since 00:00 on March 3, 2022, but on the one hand, after the reconstruction and expansion of the southern section of Fokai in June 2021, the government approved the reexamination of tolls for 24.60 years (2019.11.8-2044.6.14), on the other hand, it further acquired a 21% equity interest in Guanghui Company at the end of 2020 to realize the holding table. From a medium-and long-term point of view, it is expected to significantly narrow the operating period risk and profit risk of road production.
The company has promised a dividend ratio of 70% for 21-23 years and has a sound dividend allocation value. The company has previously issued the shareholder return Plan for the next three years (2021-2023). In order to attach importance to the reasonable return of investors and take into account the long-term development of the company, the planning company should pay dividends in cash every year, and the annual cash dividend in 2021-2023 should not be less than 70% of the net profit of the current year and returned to the parent. Looking forward to 2022-2023, corresponding to our profit forecast, assuming that the dividend ratio is maintained at 70%, the stock price measured dividend yield on 2022-8-26 is 7.2% and 7.7% respectively, which has considerable dividend allocation value.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 1.571 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan and 1.787 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 9.7,9.1 and 8.5times of PE respectively. In addition, the company has the characteristic of high dividend, so it can focus on the allocation value of robust absolute income and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the growth of traffic flow on parallel roads is not as expected; the shunt effect of parallel roads is higher than expected; and the impact of COVID-19 epidemic situation is higher than expected.