Event
The company released its semi-annual report of 2022: 22H1 revenue of 2.782 billion yuan /-2.8%, net profit of 121 million yuan / + 562.3%, net profit of 116 million yuan / + 725.8%; net cash flow of operating activities of-29.813 million yuan (- 42.374 million yuan in the same period last year); EPS (basic) of 0.18 yuan / share / + 544.2% 3.36%/+2.85pct.
Brief comment
The battery aluminum foil project has been put into production in an orderly manner, and the performance of Q2 continues to improve compared with Q1. The revenue of 22Q1 and 22Q2 is 1.337 billion yuan /-5.07% and 1.445 billion yuan /-0.61% respectively. The decline in revenue is mainly due to the slowdown in demand downstream of the paper trading business affected by the epidemic. 22Q1 homing net profit turned from loss to profit (profit 54 million yuan), 22Q2 homing net profit 67 million yuan / + 498.7%, located above the performance forecast center (corresponding to 22Q2 of 0.61-71 million yuan), mainly due to the strong demand for new energy trams downstream of aluminum foil. Sun Company Anhui Zhongji's annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of battery aluminum foil project was put into production and production capacity climbed in December 21.
Split point of view, 22H1 aluminum processing, paper packaging materials, paper trade revenue of 17.86,2.02, 717 million yuan, year-on-year + 19.66%,-5.08%,-32.17%, revenue accounted for 64.2%, 7.26%, 25.78%. Among them: 1) Aluminum processing business: aluminum foil sales of 49100 tons, of which Jiangsu Zhongji production base (packaging aluminum foil) sales of 36600 tons, Anhui Zhongji production base (battery aluminum foil) sales of 12500 tons. At present, the downstream customers of the company's battery aluminum foil include many well-known battery manufacturers, such as Ningde Times, Polyfluorodo, Xin Wanda and so on. The company passed the on-site audit of BYD suppliers in early June. With the increase in the volume of highly profitable battery aluminum foil and the increase in the gross profit margin of traditional packaging aluminum foil (as part of the production capacity of the packaging aluminum foil industry is converted to battery aluminum foil, packaging aluminum foil is in short supply, and 22 years of processing fees are also rising), the gross profit margin of the company's aluminum processing sector has increased to 18.32%/+8.25pct. 22H1 company gross profit margin 13.33%/+5.52pct, net profit margin 4.28%/+3.68pct. 2) the decline in revenue from paper packaging materials and paper trade is mainly due to the decline in bidding prices and the slowing down of downstream demand affected by the epidemic.
Actively layout aluminum strip, battery aluminum foil and carbon foil production capacity construction, the next two years performance growth is expected. The company currently has a production capacity of 110000 tons of aluminum strip, 83000 tons of packaging aluminum foil and 40,000 tons of battery aluminum foil, and is accelerating the layout of aluminum processing business. among them, 1) Battery Aluminum foil: Anhui Zhongji Phase II annual production of 32000 tons of battery aluminum foil project is under construction and is expected to be gradually put into production next year. And Anhui Zhongji 100000 tons of power and energy storage battery foil project planning and construction procedures and equipment selection are being carried out. 2) Aluminum strip: Sichuan Wanshun Zhongji annual output of 130000 tons of high-precision aluminum strip project began to enter the equipment installation stage, is expected to be put into production in 23 years. 3) carbon foil: Jiangsu Zhongji acquired a 51% stake in Shenzhen Yuqiang and planned to build a new energy carbon foil project with an annual output of 50,000 tons (25000 tons in the first phase + 25000 tons in the second phase), which will achieve a small part of the production capacity in the first half of 23 years.
Optimization of functional film product structure, expansion of photovoltaic backplane, PET copper film process is being optimized step by step. The company continues to optimize the product structure of functional films, the profitability of 22H1 functional films has been improved, and the gross profit margin of 22H1 functional films is 10.17%/+23.71pct. In addition, the company focuses on expanding market segments such as high resistance diaphragm and energy saving film and car clothing film for photovoltaic backplane; the company has developed copper film samples for battery negative electrode to be sent to downstream battery enterprises for verification, and optimize the copper film process to meet the needs of downstream battery customers.
Investment suggestion: based on the fact that the income of paper packaging and paper trade is affected by the epidemic, the revenue forecast is lowered. The estimated revenue for 22-24 is 66.3,75.1 and 8.8 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 22.0%, 13.2% and 17.2% respectively, and the net profit of returning home is 2.60,3.59 and 461 million yuan respectively, an increase of 591.4%, 38.0% and 28.6%, corresponding to a PE of 29, 21 and 17X in 22-24, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk hints: raw material price fluctuation risk, market competition risk, capacity investment risk less than expected risk