The net profit of 22H1 was 203 million yuan, an increase of 0.81%, and its performance was lower than market expectations. In 2022, the revenue of H1 company was 2.053 billion yuan, an increase of 2.25% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 203 million yuan, an increase of 0.81% over the same period last year; the gross profit margin of 22H1 was 23.52%, down 0.77 pct from the same period last year; and the net profit rate was 9.89%, an increase of 0.14pct over the same period last year. In 22 years, Q2 achieved revenue of 941 million yuan, a decrease of 15.84% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 15.35% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, 44% lower than the same period last year, 39.94% lower gross profit margin of 22Q2, 23.12% lower 3.22pct, 0.73pct lower than the same period last year, 8.1% lower 4.07pct and lower 3.32pct than the same period last year. Q2 deducted the non-net interest rate by 7.47%, down 4.03pct from the same period last year and 2.43pct from the previous month.
Affected by the epidemic, Q2 copper foil shipments declined month-on-month, and processing fees were reduced under pressure. 22H1's copper foil business achieved revenue of 1.848 billion yuan and shipped 17400 tons, of which Q2 shipped 8400 tons +, down about 7% from the previous month. This is mainly due to the weak demand for Q2 affected by the epidemic. As the demand gradually improves, the company's production schedule will increase month by month, and the August output will return to 4000 tons +. Q3 overall company copper foil shipments are expected to be about 12000 tons, with a ring increase of 40-50%. We expect shipments of 4.6-48000 tons for the whole year, an increase of about 35%. In terms of profit, the profit of Q2 copper foil per ton is about 10,000 yuan / ton, which is about 18% lower than that of Q1. On the one hand, due to the periodic oversupply of Q2 copper foil, the processing fee of mainstream products is reduced by 0.5-10,000 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the capacity utilization of Q2 company is low, and the new capacity is in the climbing stage, affecting profits. 22H2 considers that copper foil price adjustment lags behind, and the reduction of processing fees still has an impact on Q3, but the company has full orders on hand, and the growth of shipments can dilute depreciation expenses, etc., Q3 profit is expected to remain stable, and we expect the full-year profit per ton to remain about 11-12 million yuan / ton, basically the same as the same period last year.
The expansion of production capacity has been promoted steadily, and the product structure has been optimized throughout the year. The company has a production capacity of 43000 tons at the end of 2021, 12000 tons in Huizhou and 15000 tons in Qinghai have been put into production in Q2. We expect the company's effective production capacity to be more than 55000 tons in 2022. In addition, the production capacity of Hubei Huangshi Phase I is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2023. After putting into production, the company's production capacity has increased to 135000 tons, leading industries in capacity expansion. We expect the company to ship 70,000 tons + in 2023, an increase of 50% +. In terms of product structure, the trend of ultra-thinning of copper foil continues. In addition, the proportion of overseas customers will further increase in 2022. It is expected that the proportion of overseas customers will increase to about 30% in the second half of the year, and 6 μ m products will be switched one after another, and the product structure will be further optimized. The leading position is maintained.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the downward trend of copper foil processing fees, the net profit of our company from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 604 million (the original forecast is RMB 1.412 billion), an increase of 49%, 50%, 40%, corresponding to the PE of 32-21-15, and the target price is 15.6 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk hint: raw material prices fluctuate and electric car sales fall short of expectations.
