The company is the leader of railway transportation in Greater Bay area. The company mainly operates railway passenger and freight transport business and operates through-Hong Kong passenger train transport business in cooperation with Hong Kong Railway Co., Ltd., and provides railway operation services to other railway companies in the mainland. The company independently operates Shenzhen-Guangzhou-Pingshi railway, operating mileage of 481.2 kilometers, vertically throughout Guangdong Province. Due to the great impact of the epidemic on the company's passenger transport sector, the company's revenue was significantly affected from 2020 to 2021, and its performance recorded a loss. In 2021, the company's operating income was 20.21 billion, an increase of 23.6% over the same period last year, realizing a homed net profit of-973 million, a loss of 74.4% over the same period last year, deducting a non-homed net profit of-1.06 billion, and a loss of 25.6% and a pre-loss of 600-800 million in the first half of 2022.
Passenger transport business occupies a dominant position, looking forward to the recovery of passenger flow and the realization of land resources. The company takes passenger transport as its core foothold, and freight and other transport businesses grow in tandem. In 2021, passenger transport, freight transport and other transport services accounted for 30.5%, 10.1% and 53.5% of the company's operating income, respectively. The historical operation of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway is stable, the hinterland of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao has sufficient passenger supply, and according to the 14th five-year Plan of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Railway, the impact of lines under construction and recent planned lines on Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity trains may be relatively small, so we believe that after the epidemic has subsided, the passenger flow of Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity trains is expected to pick up significantly. In addition, in 2018, the company signed the "compensation Agreement for the acquisition and Storage of State-owned Land use Rights" with Guangzhou Land Development Center and other institutions, and the company handed over 371,000 square meters of land use rights in Guangzhou Dongshipai used goods yard, and finally received a net compensation income of 1.19 billion in 2010. the land value-added income is large. When the company went public in 2006, there were 125 cases of land use rights, with a total area of 11.81 million yuan, of which the land area of cargo yard, stacking station and warehouse was 1.793 million yuan, 275000 yuan and 65000 yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's current performance is at the bottom of the stage due to the impact of the epidemic, and there are no significant diversion lines around the company's core road property in the near future, and passenger flow is expected to recover significantly after the epidemic receds. pull the company's performance to repair significantly. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 20.27 billion, 24.6 billion and 27.28 billion respectively, an increase of 0.3%, 21.4% and 10.9% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit will be-1.25 billion, 330 million and 880 million respectively. According to the 18 times PE valuation of EPS in 2024, we believe that the reasonable share price of the company should be around 2.22 yuan, covering "overweight" for the first time.
Rating.
Risk tips: valuation risk, profit forecast risk, business risk, surrounding road property diversion risk, policy risk, safety accident risk.