Individual stock opportunities | Ali takes the lead in Double Eleven, and the food industry has bright spots

富途资讯 · Nov 19, 2018 22:44

精编自中信证券：《10月&双十一阿里系线上数据解析：双十一提前开幕，十月有所提速》

编者注：天猫公告称，双十一狂欢节退货率仅0.06，远低于行业平均水平。本篇研报带你一探究竟，食品行业双十一表现究竟如何？

1、全网销售额再创新高，天猫平台交易额同增26.9%

根据星途数据，今年双十一全网总销售额达3143.2亿元、同增23.8%。从各平台销售情况来看，天猫当天销售额达2134.2亿元、同增26.9%，销售额占全网比为67.9%；其次是京东，苏宁和拼多多，占比分别为17.3%/4.7%/3%。食品榜单中休闲食品居前，白酒与乳制品品牌亦进入前十。

2、双十一食品行业有哪些亮点？

保健品行业：龙头公司高增，双十一提前10月快速增长

保健品10月阿里系线上销售同比高增50.9%，保健品受双十一带动持续热销。2018年10月保健品阿里系线上销售额达17.97亿、同增50.9%。海外保健品销售额为7.21亿元、同增48.9%，其中天猫B2C端实现销售额3.66亿元、同比高增93.2%，淘宝C2C端实现销售额3.56亿元、同增20.5%，促销期间品牌店的影响力更大、增速更快。10月天猫主动销售额占比50.7%，较去年同期提升11.6pcts。

休闲食品行业：促销期行业明显提速

休闲食品10月阿里系线上销售额同增36.8%。10月休闲食品行业零售额达51.07亿、同增36.8%。分子市场来看，糕点行业销售额最大、为12.15亿元，饼干、坚果和卤味零食的销售规模分别为8.54亿元、8.26亿元、6.54亿元。10月休闲食品阿里系线上销售均价26.2元、同增12.2%。

乳制品行业：液奶高增，奶粉同比增速改善明显

液奶/白奶/酸奶行业10月阿里系线上销售额同比增长48.7%/73.7%/16.3%。10月液奶行业销售额达4.79亿、同增48.7%，其中白奶、酸奶和其他品类占比分别为67%、31%、2%。白奶销售额为3.20亿元、同比增长73.7%，双十一动销效果良好；酸奶销售额1.48亿元、同增16.3%，同比增速与前几月相比明显加速。液奶行业销售均价为57.63元、同比降低6.3%、环比增长1.2%，8-10月连续三月均价环比提升。

酒类行业：双十一促销前置带动白酒销售高增

双十一提前预售，10月白酒高增77.2%。2018年10月阿里系线上白酒总销售额为2.59亿元、同增77.2%，白酒双十一预售从10月20日开启预售、促销提前。高端白酒茅台/五粮液/老窖实现销售额1927万元/1829万元/1334万元，分别同增78.0%/74.5%/242.3%。次高端与大众酒中，洋河/汾酒/牛栏山实现销售额1078万元/983万元/766万元，分别同增71.8%/82.5%/66.0%。

3、风险因素

消费需求转弱，食品安全风险，行业政策风险。

Edited by CITIC: "October & Singles Day Ali online data analysis: Singles Day opened ahead of schedule and accelerated in October."

Editor's note: Tmall announced that the return rate for Singles Day Carnival is only 0.06, much lower than the industry average. This research report will take you to find out how the food industry performed on Singles Day.

1. The sales of the whole network hit a new high, and the transaction volume of Tmall platform increased by 26.9%.

According to Xingtu data, the total sales of the whole network reached 314.32 billion yuan this year, an increase of 23.8%. Judging from the sales of each platform, Tmall's sales on that day reached 213.42 billion yuan, an increase of 26.9 percent.Sales account for 67.9% of the whole network.Followed by JD.com, SUNING and Pinduoduo, accounting for 17.3%, 4.7% and 3%, respectively. Snack foods are at the top of the food list, while liquor and dairy brands are also in the top 10.

2. What are the highlights of the Singles' Day food industry?

Health products industry: high growth of leading companies, rapid growth in October ahead of Singles Day holiday

Online sales of health products increased by 50.9% in October compared with the same period last year, and health products continued to sell well driven by Singles Day.In October 2018, the online sales of health products reached 1.797 billion, an increase of 50.9 percent. The sales of overseas health products were 721 million yuan, an increase of 48.9%. Among them, the sales of Tmall's B2C side reached 366 million yuan, an increase of 93.2% over the same period last year, and the sales of Taobao's C2C side reached 356 million yuan, an increase of 20.5%. During the promotion period, the brand store has more influence and faster growth. In October, Tmall took the initiative to account for 50.7% of sales, an increase in 11.6pcts over the same period last year.

Snack food industry: the industry speeds up obviously during the promotion period

Online sales of snack food increased by 36.8% in October. Retail sales in the snack food industry reached 5.107 billion in October, an increase of 36.8%.From the molecular market point of view, the pastry industry has the largest sales volume of 1.215 billion yuan, while the sales scale of biscuits, nuts and lo mei snacks is 854 million yuan, 826 million yuan and 654 million yuan respectively. The average online sales price of snack food Ali in October was 26.2 yuan, an increase of 12.2%.

Dairy industry: high growth of liquid milk and significant improvement in the growth rate of milk powder compared with the same period last year

In the liquid milk / white milk / yogurt industry, online sales of Ali increased by 48.7% in October compared with the same period last year.Sales in the liquid milk industry reached 479 million in October, up 48.7 percent, with white milk, yogurt and other products accounting for 67 percent, 31 percent and 2 percent, respectively. The sales of white milk was 320 million yuan, an increase of 73.7% over the same period last year, and the moving sales effect of Singles Day was good; the sales of yogurt was 148 million yuan, an increase of 16.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly faster than that of previous months. The average sales price of the liquid milk industry was 57.63 yuan, down 6.3% from the same period last year, and 1.2% month-on-month growth from August to October.

Liquor industry: the front of Singles Day promotion leads to a high increase in liquor sales.

Double Day holiday was pre-sold in advance, and liquor increased by 77.2% in October.In October 2018, the total sales of online liquor of Ali series was 259 million yuan, an increase of 77.2%. The pre-sale of liquor double 11 started from October 20, and the promotion was advanced. Sales of high-end liquor Maotai / Wuliangye / laojiao reached 19.27 million yuan / 18.29 million yuan / 13.34 million yuan, an increase of 78.0% / 74.5% / 242.3% respectively. Among the secondary high-end and popular wines, Yanghe / Fenjiu / Niulanshan achieved sales of 10.78 million yuan / 9.83 million yuan / 7.66 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 71.8%, 82.5% and 66.0% respectively.

3. Risk factors

Weakening consumer demand, food safety risks, industry policy risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

个股机会 | 双十一阿里独占鳌头，食品行业有亮点

Individual stock opportunities | Ali takes the lead in Double Eleven, and the food industry has bright spots

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