Events:
Bo Liwei released its mid-2022 report: the company's revenue in the first half of the year was 1.23 billion yuan, up 20.5% from the same period last year, while its net profit was 80 million yuan, down 8.0% from the same period last year; and 80 million yuan was deducted from non-parent net profit, down 11.1% from the same period last year. Company Q2 revenue 690 million yuan, year-on-year + 21.0%, month-on-month + 25.7%.
The net profit of homing / deducting non-returning net profit is 0.5 million, which is 32.5% compared with the same period last year, and 120.8% compared with the previous year.
Main points of investment:
The company's two-wheeler business is developing steadily. The company's revenue from the two-wheeler business in the first half of the year was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%. In 2022, Q2 company product price increase + RMB depreciation + technology iteration (21700 substitution), the gross margin ratio Q1 has a significant improvement. At the same time, the company negotiates price transmission with customers, alleviates the pressure of rising prices of raw materials, and actively promotes the transformation of the core technology platform from 18650 to 21700 to achieve product technology iteration and digest the cost pressure. At present, the company already has self-built cell production capacity, which is expected to be put into production in September this year. The demand for consumer electronics weakened in the first half of the year, and the company's sales revenue of consumer batteries and lithium-ion batteries was 321 million yuan,-12.7% compared with the same period last year. The company's consumer batteries are mainly suitable for notebook computers, mobile power supplies, etc., due to the decline in demand in the consumer market dominated by notebook computers and mobile phones, the overall scale growth of consumer electronics is not obvious. As the demand for consumer electronics picks up in the future, the company's consumer electronics business will improve.
The energy storage business grew faster than expected, creating the company's second growth pole. The revenue of energy storage batteries in the first half of the year was 124 million yuan, + 135.7% compared with the same period last year. The company's energy storage products are mainly used in outdoor portable energy storage and small household energy storage. Among them, portable energy storage market positioning is relatively high-end, last year's biggest customer is GOALZERO, the market is mainly concentrated in North America, this year the company will continue to expand new customers. In terms of household energy storage, the company's customers used to be mainly in South Africa, and the company is focusing on the European market this year. Energy storage business is expected to account for 10% of the revenue this year, and it is expected to reach 20-30% with the rapid growth of energy storage business in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company focuses on the light two-wheeler power battery market, the basic market is sound; at the same time, the company enters the energy storage business, the industry has high growth potential in the future, the company is expected to continue to benefit in the future. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 3.077 billion yuan, 4.259 billion yuan and 5.977 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and its net profit of 208 million yuan, 287 million yuan and 407 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 38.07,27.67,19.49, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is lower than expected; the company's capacity release is not as expected; the competition pattern is intensified; the company's order delivery is not as expected; customer introduction is not as expected.