Short-term performance is under pressure to maintain "overweight" rating
The company's 2022H1 realized revenue of 269 million yuan, down 16.1% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of 48 million yuan, down 26% from the same period last year. Due to the pressure on brand meat business, we downgrade our profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.79 (- 0.21,1.06) and 1.34 (- 0.66) million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.08,0.11,0.14 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 51.6,38.2,30.3 times of PE. With the improvement of the channel layout and the diversification of consumption scenes, the company is still in a period of rapid development, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The growth trend of characteristic meat products is good, and the decline in revenue is mainly due to a large decline in brand meat business. (1) from the perspective of sub-products: 2021H1 ham revenue fell 7.9% year-on-year to 101 million yuan; ham products fell 42.0% year-on-year to 3.51 million yuan; specialty meat products increased 114.9% year-on-year to 136 million yuan; brand meat dropped 88.2% to 15 million yuan. The growth trend of characteristic meat products is good, mainly due to the better dynamic sale of guaranteed products during the epidemic period; (2) from the perspective of sub-channels: KA circulation channels increased by 136.8% year-on-year to 110 million yuan, mainly due to over-purchasing of guaranteed products; hotel catering and food processing decreased by 52.3% and 83.3% to 490 yuan and 9.99 million yuan respectively, mainly due to the disappearance of catering consumption scene. Direct marketing (group buying) and e-commerce channels also declined compared with the same period last year, falling by 53.2% and 12.0% respectively to 0.39 and 89 million yuan respectively. Looking forward to 2022H2, it is expected that the brand meat business can still grow rapidly under the strong demand for specialty meat products, and the brand meat business may improve with the rebound in pig prices.
The decline in net interest rate was mainly due to the increase in sales expense rate and management expense rate. 2022H1's net interest rate fell 2.5pct to 17.5%, and the decline was mainly due to the increase in sales expense rate and management expense rate. 2022H1 gross profit margin increased 0.9pct to 28.2%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of characteristic meat products with high gross margins.
The rate of sales expenses increased to 6.4%, mainly due to the increase in the company's merchant and online advertising expenses. The rate of management expenses increased to 4.5%, mainly due to the increase in the loss of inventory, the salary of employees and other expenses. Looking forward to 2022H2, the rate is expected to remain high during the new product promotion period, but the company will further improve the efficiency of cost delivery. The company actively develops new channels such as community e-commerce and chain catering, strengthens offline channels, and continuously distributes online channels. In the future, with the further improvement of channel construction, the improvement of brand meat business, the continuous enrichment of product matrix and the enhancement of multi-business synergy, the company has great potential for development.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion below expectations, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.