This report is read as follows:
Volume and price rise, Q2 performance increased month-on-month; railway transport business increased significantly, methanol business loss; Hongdunzi coal mine provides sustained growth.
Main points of investment:
Raise the profit forecast and target price, and maintain the overweight rating. 2022H1 has an income of 4.214 billion yuan (+ 34.83%) and a net profit of 924 million yuan (+ 46.37%). The performance is slightly higher than expected, with an increase of 2022, 2023, EPS to 1.32, 1.51, 1.61 in 2024 and 10.56 in the same proportion.
Both volume and price rose, and Q2 performance increased month-on-month. The company's 22Q2 return net profit is 610 million (year-on-year + 32.72%, month-on-month + 94.20%). The volume and price at the income end rose, while the cost side declined: 1) 2022Q2 coal output 3.99 million tons, year-on-year + 12.76%, month-on-month + 43.12% Q1 affected by Gaojialiang coal face adjustment and other factors, output dropped 15.87% Q2 to resume active production, output greatly increased; 2) Q2 tons coal income 596 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 33.80%, month-on-month + 1.82% 3) the average cost of Q2 tons of coal is 214 yuan / ton, down 14.4% from the previous month. The company strictly controls the cost and expects the cost to remain stable in the future. 4) the financial expenses decreased obviously, the financial expenses in the first half of the year were 148 million yuan (- 30.62%), and the average financing cost decreased by 11.59bpjue Q2 financial expenses further decreased by 9.41% compared with 2021.
The railway transport business increased significantly, while the methanol business lost money. 1) the railway transport business benefited from the good influence of the coal market, with an increase in transport volume and a significant increase in gross profit. Q2 railway transport volume was 1.8763 million tons (+ 20.80%) and gross profit was 26.7643 million yuan (+ 42.89%). 2) methanol business was affected by maintenance and high coal prices, production and sales decreased compared with the same period last year, Q2 sales volume of 74500 tons (- 38.28%), gross profit loss of 45.3052 million yuan.
Hongdunzi Coal Mine provides sustainable growth. The total production capacity of Hongdunzi Coal Mine is 6.6 million tons, accounting for 49% of the company's production capacity at the end of 2021, of which Hongyi and Hong2 coal mines under construction (both 2.4 million tons and 60% equity) are expected to be put into production in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Risk hint: the macro-economy is lower than expected and coal prices fall faster than expected.
