TAVR sales continue to climb, nerve intervention to achieve rapid growth
Peijia announced 1H22 performance on August 19, achieving 1H22 income of 119 million yuan, an increase of 129.8% over the same period last year. The main reasons are: 1) two generations of TAVR led the growth, regardless of the epidemic continued to release (we estimated 1H22 product implantation volume of 470 cases); 2) nerve intervention varieties continued high growth (1H22 income growth rate of 57.6%). Considering the admission of the company's first / second generation TAVR products (114new 1H22 admissions) and the rapid release of new nerve intervention products (Fluxcap balloon guidance catheter, Tethys AS thrombus aspiration catheter, Syphonet thrombus extraction stent, etc.) gradually formed sales in the second half of the year, we forecast Peijia's 2022-2024 income of 2.68 × 496 million yuan, and we are optimistic that the profit will become positive in 2024. Using the DCF valuation method (assuming a WACC of 11.5% and a sustainable growth rate of 0.5%), we give Peijia a target price of HK $12.03 and maintain a "buy" rating.
The amount of TAVR implanted is bright, and it is optimistic that the future sales revenue will continue to climb. Peijia TAVR business will achieve an income of 52 million yuan in 1H22 (yoy 455.4%), mainly because the admission of the first / second generation TAVR is progressing smoothly and the amount of implantation continues to rise. We are optimistic that the revenue of the business will exceed 100 million yuan in 2022, mainly due to: 1) the continuous climbing of the first / second generation TAVR products; 2) the regional health insurance to stimulate the penetration of the industry (such as Shanghai will include TAVR consumables in the health insurance this year, and pay for performance on a trial basis); 3) the existing products continue to be hospitalized: currently, a total of 209 have been admitted, providing a solid foundation for long-term volume. In addition, the third-generation TAVR TaurusNXT is in the clinical phase of multicenter registration, the shock wave product TaurusWave is in the FIM stage, and Trilogy (certified by CE) is expected to be forensics in the United States / China for 25 years.
Nerve intervention plate continued high growth, optimistic about the new product volume nerve intervention plate 1H22 income 67 million yuan (yoy 57.6%) in the second half of the year, we expect this sector income growth rate is expected to impact 50%, the main reason: 1) stock varieties: Tethy intermediate guide catheter and SacSpeed balloon dilatation catheter lead growth, spring coil products remain robust 2) New product increment: Fluxcap balloon guide catheter / Fastunnel transport balloon dilatation catheter / Tethys AS thrombus aspiration catheter / Syphonet thrombectomy stent was approved in the first half of the year, and 2H22 is expected to enter the hospital steadily to form sales.
TMV/TTV: the mitral valve repair / replacement pipeline is complete, and it is optimistic that it will be put on the market one after 2024. We estimate that the Peijia II / tricuspid valve pipeline is expected to hit nearly 2 billion yuan in sales in 2030. The core contributions include: 1) SpyderOne (self-developed mitral valve replacement) 2H22 is expected to enter human clinical practice. 2) HighLife (mitral valve replacement), which solves the problems of anchoring, perivalvular leakage and coaxiality, is currently carried out in Europe, and the follow-up plan is to carry out clinical trials in the United States, and 2H22 is expected to open a registered clinic in China; 3) Sutra (mitral valve commissural enhancement system) is in the animal experimental stage; 4) GeminiOne (mitral valve repair marginal system) and MonarQ (tricuspid valve system) are expected to enter human clinical practice.
Risk tips: epidemic-related risks, slow improvement of TAVR market penetration, and R & D risks.