Refined from Societe Generale Securities: "Bilibili Inc.: high barriers to community replication and great potential for diversified realization"
1. The current largest cash cow: a two-dimensional game
Bilibili Inc. as a vertical channel of mobile games, sitting on the exclusive entrance of ACG enthusiasts, the introduction of QQ mobile game users is accurate. The core game "FGO" reference daily service will at least keep the flow stable until the end of 2019, while the revenue of other single-generation games such as "Blue Route" and "Dream 100" will remain stable.
In addition, the company has signed up 15 popular new games, most of which have performed well in the history of Japanese server, and users are expected to see a substantial increase in the number of paid users after the launch of the new game. The situation of high concentration of mobile game income may be improved.
2. Sustainable growth in the future: advertising, live streaming, comics
Advertising revenue has maintained year-on-year growth of more than 100% for six consecutive quarters, and the rapid growth of advertising revenue is driven by the rapid growth of the number of users and the longer per capita usage time. 2Q18 1/3 of the revenue comes from the results of advertising launched at the beginning of this year, ad-load and eCPM have a lot of room for improvement.
The realization of live streaming and value-added services is in the early stage, and the payment rate of 3.5% is lower than the industry standard. The number of paid households and ARPPU value will be increased through the optimization of user experience and the introduction of high-quality copyright content.
Societe Generale Securities estimates that Bilibili Inc. 's income structure in the next 3-5 years is expected to be games: advertising: live value-added services = 5:3:2.
Extended reading:Bilibili Inc. is going to arrange the secondary market! Comic APP comes out!
3. Core competence: users' high sense of identity and virtuous circle of content creation soil.
Bilibili Inc. is the largest PUG video content platform in China, the iconic brand community of light people online entertainment, and the user stickiness and retention lead the industry. The number of 2Q18 monthly active users is 85 million, the retention rate of full members is as high as 80% in December, and the average daily use time of active users is 75 minutes.
The ecological model attracts users through content, the highly interactive community retains users, and users encourage content creation to form a closed loop between content-user-community.
On this basis, a good creative soil promotes the self-growth of PUG content in the site; does not rely on copyright content to make Bilibili Inc. 's content cost low; the membership system with a threshold and a strong interactive community environment bring users a sense of identity and belonging.
